Odrl
31st January 2012, 03:09 PM
Right, major ranking snooker continues this week, with an event I am particularly looking forward to. It was a great success last year, with big crowds for every match, and some great snooker thrown in. It also features my favourite length of matches for this type of event, although the event is unfortunately two days short. :)
Personally, I wasn't a big fan of the setup last year. The outside tables were great, but the main table seemed too far from the audience, and it seemed like it wasn't anyone's main focus. From watching it on TV, I found the atmosphere somewhat lacking early on, but that all changed when only the main table remained. If it was up to me, I would just take the main table out until the final, still leaving a choice of matches for the audience, and televise two (or preferably all four) of the outside tables. Of course I would also like to extend the event for an additional two days. I can see the point of trying to push as much of the action as possible towards the weekend, but I think this event doesn't really need that, because it's very well supported as it is. Anyway, this is a discussion for another time...
Let's look at the draw instead:
Quarter 1:
Mark Williams v. K.Doherty/P.Einsle
Stuart Bingham v. Peter Ebdon
Stephen Lee v. A.Gunnell/P.Bullen
Ding Junhui v. Yu D./C.Norbury
A very interesting first quarter, with Mark Williams and Ding Junhui once again scheduled to meet in the QF. There is a lot of work to be done first though. Williams is the defending champion and an "overseas" specialist, and with his rather mediocre performances at the UK and the Masters, I would expect him to be on his game here. He will probably play Ken Doherty in the 1st round, in the repeat of the SF from Australia at the start of the season, a match Williams won comfortably. We haven't seen much of Doherty since then, but I guess that is to be expected, as he has had no consistency whatsoever in the last couple of seasons. His wildcard match against Patrick Einsle could be interesting in its own right. The two players actually played a frame against each other at the World Cup in July, and it was Einsle who won on that occasion. I think there is a chance of an upset here. Then we also have Stuart Bingham and Peter Ebdon, in what is one of the three or four most interesting matches of the 1st round. Bingham is the seeded player at this point in time, so he would have to be favourite, but Ebdon can still be very dangerous on his day. And he hasn't had his day for quite a while now, which could be in his favour. The 2nd round here could be another Australian repeat, this time the final, if the two seeded players come through. At the end of the day though, I think Williams is a pretty strong favourite here.
The second part of this quarter also features some interesting names, Ding Junhui in particular. I guess he is one of the more underwhelming players of the season so far, at least as far as the top players are concerned. I would expect him to find a bit of form sooner of later, in fact, he played good snooker at times at the UK. He could play another Chinese player in the 1st round here, Yu Delu. I am not sure how often these two have played each other, only the 2007 Shanghai Masters springs to mind, but surely they must have met a couple of times outside of the Main Tour. We mostly know Yu from the wildcard rounds of the Chinese events, so this is a rare TV appearance outside of China for him, and it will be interesting to see how he copes. I wouldn't completely rule out an upset here either. The other player to consider here would be Stephen Lee, who has regained most of his consistency over the last two seasons, and is now dangerous in most events. He lost to Ding at the China Open in 2011, a tournament where both players were on their game, and if they should meet again, I think Ding has to be the favourite.
Quarter 2:
Allister Carter v. Joe Perry
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Andrew Higginson
Matthew Stevens v. M.Dunn/C.Steadman
Neil Robertson v. Marcus Campbell
I would consider the second quarter a pretty weak one, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out nonetheless. Ali Carter and Ronnie O'Sullivan are two of the seeded players, and we all know how this particular pairing usually goes. So, if Carter is to go through, he would probably need O'Sullivan to go out in the 1st round. Well... we all know how he can sometimes play abroad, if he turns up at all. He has a pretty handy opponent in Higginson, a player well capable of beating anyone, but also a player who should suit O'Sullivan in many ways. Higginson plays quite fast, doesn't over think situations, and certainly doesn't get involved in any mind games or anything like that. What about Carter himself? He is certainly not guaranteed to go through here. His match against Perry will be a repeat of the World semi-final of 2008, a match that went very close. Perry has been somewhat quiet over the last season or so, going from a decent top16 player to an occasional qualifier, while Carter's season has been awful so far, with no notable results whatsoever, so I find this match very hard to predict. With no really strong contender here, I have to go for O'Sullivan to come through.
The second part of this quarter does feature a big name, but as usual, I will try to find a reason for his potential failure. There is no doubt Robertson played great snooker at the Masters, perhaps not his most fluent game, but certainly his hardest and most determined. In that mode, he is very hard to stop. But as we have seen in the past with players who play a similar game, it's very hard to hold that kind of determination and competitiveness all the time, especially after you've just had a major success. I thought Robertson looked pretty good in Germany last year, but he still lost against Hamilton in the 1st round. It's no secret that his preparation is sometimes not ideal, so it will be interesting to see what kind of mood he is in this week. Having played a pretty strong tournament in China this season, perhaps he is up for Germany as well. I would predict an early exit, but looking at his opposition, he has a reasonably easy draw. He first needs to get past Marcus Campbell, a great battler who certainly won't make it easy, then it's probably going to be Matthew Stevens... Not sure what more to say about Stevens, he continually finds new ways to lose big matches, but he has been reaching some later stages in the last two seasons, so if Robertson is off his game, Stevens could take advantage.
Quarter 3:
Mark Selby v. Liu S./S.Sari
Graeme Dott v. James Wattana
Martin Gould v. Ricky Walden
Shaun Murphy v. Barry Hawkins
On to the bottom half, a very interesting third quarter of the draw. Mark Selby is once again a favourite to come through, and he needs a good result here, after somewhat disappointing performances in the recent big two events. He was in a similar position last year, needing a good result after a disappointing Masters, and he managed to reach the final. I think he will respond well again. He is now consistently beating his early opponents, so I would not expect Liu Song (or indeed Sari) to give him any major trouble, but his 2nd round opponent should be more difficult, especially if it's Graeme Dott. This would be a repeat of the semi-final last year, a great match which Selby won, and also another in the series of meetings between the two in recent times. I don't think either player has the edge in their rivalry at this point, so I would have to go for Selby as the higher seed. I think this could be a high-quality part of the draw actually, as both players are pretty good travelers, with good records outside of the UK, so in a way it's a shame they have drawn each other so early.
There are more contenders for the other QF spot, in fact, all four players have a decent chance. Let's start with Murphy, the biggest name here. During the Masters week, I thought he looked the best out of all players, the final was his only slightly poor match. He is obviously in good form, and unlike Robertson, he will still have the hunger now that he lost the final. It's been a while since he last won even a standard ranking event, although he has won a couple of minor titles recently. I think the Masters was his best major event for quite some time, which must be encouraging for him. The draw here is not exactly easy, but it's not too bad either, at least not until the QF. First there is Barry Hawkins, the shoot-out winner, although I'm not sure that's going to be in his favour here. He is a very good player on his day, a solid tactical game and breakbuilding at his own measured pace. The question is, does he have the firepower to beat an in-form Murphy? Do Gould or Walden? Gould in particular has found it a struggle to play Murphy in recent times, losing a couple of matches against him on the big stage. I think there is a big difference in experience between them, after all, Murphy played quite similar to Gould when he first came on the scene. But these days he is a very solid player, and you need a bit of tactical awareness to take him out. I think the better bet here is Ricky Walden, whom we didn't see at the Masters, but his performance in the UK was very good. In fact, it was he that took out Murphy on that occasion. He is another very good traveler, with some very good results in the Chinese events in the past. I think his match against Gould is one of the most promising 1st round prospects, and if it's anything like their match at the China Open last season, I am very much looking forward to it. As for the winner of this part of the draw, I'm still sticking with Murphy.
Quarter 4:
Judd Trump v. P.Davison/K.Wrobel
Mark Allen v. T.Ford/P.Arnold
Stephen Maguire v. Ryan Day
John Higgins v. Mark Davis
And finally the bottom quarter, a decent contender for the strongest quarter in my opinion. The 2nd round could see a repeat of the UK final, should see actually, as both players have quite reasonable opponents in the 1st round. I think Trump might be past his form peak at this point, but he has found that consistently decent game that should see him through against the slightly lesser players. The only danger perhaps could be the type of opponent he will be facing, a slow, hard battler, so he should look to take his chances and not let it become a scrap. We have seen how hard Krzysztof Wrobel tries at the World Cup earlier in the season, and I'm sure he will battle for every ball here as well. Then we have Mark Allen, likely to face a more established player in Tom Ford. Ford could be quite dangerous, having won a PTC not so long ago, but Allen clearly has the edge over him. They played two big matches in 2010, the WC and the UK, Allen won them both quite comfortably. What about the 2nd round then? Well, both players have had some success abroad, perhaps Allen more consistently than Trump, and I think he will be hungrier for a win here.
And the final spot? Once again, it could go to four players, but Higgins and Maguire stand out a bit. Not sure what to say about Higgins... we can talk about his great B-game again, his good record in the early rounds, the fact he is the World Champion I suppose, but I've said this ahead of pretty much every event this season, and it's been mostly disappointing from Higgins. I do think his form will pick up though. The mental batteries will surely re-charge at some point, and the hunger will come back. He won the UK and the WC with an extremely determined and concentrated game, kind of like the one Robertson played at the Masters, and he needs that sort of mode if he is to challenge for further titles. Mark Davis is not the easiest of opponents these days, so Higgins will have to be on it right from the start. Stephen Maguire? Once again I can only repeat myself and mention his lack of titles for the last couple of seasons, his occasional good performances in single matches, my feeling that his good form is just around the corner, but it never quite seems to happen for him. It doesn't help that he is facing Ryan Day in the 1st round either. Ok, Day hasn't done anything significant recently, but he is another "overseas" specialist who could take advantage here if the two seeds are off their game. If it should be Higgins against Maguire in the 2nd round, how is that likely to go? Hard to say again... Higgins has had more success in their recent matches, but he didn't win at the UK last month, so Maguire might have the slightest of edges.
Possible QF lineup:
Mark Williams v. Ding Junhui
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Matthew Stevens
Mark Selby v. Shaun Murphy
Mark Allen v. Stephen Maguire
So, a slightly less "safe" prediction this time, and I got it on time as well! :)
It should be a good snooker week, bring it on! :)
Personally, I wasn't a big fan of the setup last year. The outside tables were great, but the main table seemed too far from the audience, and it seemed like it wasn't anyone's main focus. From watching it on TV, I found the atmosphere somewhat lacking early on, but that all changed when only the main table remained. If it was up to me, I would just take the main table out until the final, still leaving a choice of matches for the audience, and televise two (or preferably all four) of the outside tables. Of course I would also like to extend the event for an additional two days. I can see the point of trying to push as much of the action as possible towards the weekend, but I think this event doesn't really need that, because it's very well supported as it is. Anyway, this is a discussion for another time...
Let's look at the draw instead:
Quarter 1:
Mark Williams v. K.Doherty/P.Einsle
Stuart Bingham v. Peter Ebdon
Stephen Lee v. A.Gunnell/P.Bullen
Ding Junhui v. Yu D./C.Norbury
A very interesting first quarter, with Mark Williams and Ding Junhui once again scheduled to meet in the QF. There is a lot of work to be done first though. Williams is the defending champion and an "overseas" specialist, and with his rather mediocre performances at the UK and the Masters, I would expect him to be on his game here. He will probably play Ken Doherty in the 1st round, in the repeat of the SF from Australia at the start of the season, a match Williams won comfortably. We haven't seen much of Doherty since then, but I guess that is to be expected, as he has had no consistency whatsoever in the last couple of seasons. His wildcard match against Patrick Einsle could be interesting in its own right. The two players actually played a frame against each other at the World Cup in July, and it was Einsle who won on that occasion. I think there is a chance of an upset here. Then we also have Stuart Bingham and Peter Ebdon, in what is one of the three or four most interesting matches of the 1st round. Bingham is the seeded player at this point in time, so he would have to be favourite, but Ebdon can still be very dangerous on his day. And he hasn't had his day for quite a while now, which could be in his favour. The 2nd round here could be another Australian repeat, this time the final, if the two seeded players come through. At the end of the day though, I think Williams is a pretty strong favourite here.
The second part of this quarter also features some interesting names, Ding Junhui in particular. I guess he is one of the more underwhelming players of the season so far, at least as far as the top players are concerned. I would expect him to find a bit of form sooner of later, in fact, he played good snooker at times at the UK. He could play another Chinese player in the 1st round here, Yu Delu. I am not sure how often these two have played each other, only the 2007 Shanghai Masters springs to mind, but surely they must have met a couple of times outside of the Main Tour. We mostly know Yu from the wildcard rounds of the Chinese events, so this is a rare TV appearance outside of China for him, and it will be interesting to see how he copes. I wouldn't completely rule out an upset here either. The other player to consider here would be Stephen Lee, who has regained most of his consistency over the last two seasons, and is now dangerous in most events. He lost to Ding at the China Open in 2011, a tournament where both players were on their game, and if they should meet again, I think Ding has to be the favourite.
Quarter 2:
Allister Carter v. Joe Perry
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Andrew Higginson
Matthew Stevens v. M.Dunn/C.Steadman
Neil Robertson v. Marcus Campbell
I would consider the second quarter a pretty weak one, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out nonetheless. Ali Carter and Ronnie O'Sullivan are two of the seeded players, and we all know how this particular pairing usually goes. So, if Carter is to go through, he would probably need O'Sullivan to go out in the 1st round. Well... we all know how he can sometimes play abroad, if he turns up at all. He has a pretty handy opponent in Higginson, a player well capable of beating anyone, but also a player who should suit O'Sullivan in many ways. Higginson plays quite fast, doesn't over think situations, and certainly doesn't get involved in any mind games or anything like that. What about Carter himself? He is certainly not guaranteed to go through here. His match against Perry will be a repeat of the World semi-final of 2008, a match that went very close. Perry has been somewhat quiet over the last season or so, going from a decent top16 player to an occasional qualifier, while Carter's season has been awful so far, with no notable results whatsoever, so I find this match very hard to predict. With no really strong contender here, I have to go for O'Sullivan to come through.
The second part of this quarter does feature a big name, but as usual, I will try to find a reason for his potential failure. There is no doubt Robertson played great snooker at the Masters, perhaps not his most fluent game, but certainly his hardest and most determined. In that mode, he is very hard to stop. But as we have seen in the past with players who play a similar game, it's very hard to hold that kind of determination and competitiveness all the time, especially after you've just had a major success. I thought Robertson looked pretty good in Germany last year, but he still lost against Hamilton in the 1st round. It's no secret that his preparation is sometimes not ideal, so it will be interesting to see what kind of mood he is in this week. Having played a pretty strong tournament in China this season, perhaps he is up for Germany as well. I would predict an early exit, but looking at his opposition, he has a reasonably easy draw. He first needs to get past Marcus Campbell, a great battler who certainly won't make it easy, then it's probably going to be Matthew Stevens... Not sure what more to say about Stevens, he continually finds new ways to lose big matches, but he has been reaching some later stages in the last two seasons, so if Robertson is off his game, Stevens could take advantage.
Quarter 3:
Mark Selby v. Liu S./S.Sari
Graeme Dott v. James Wattana
Martin Gould v. Ricky Walden
Shaun Murphy v. Barry Hawkins
On to the bottom half, a very interesting third quarter of the draw. Mark Selby is once again a favourite to come through, and he needs a good result here, after somewhat disappointing performances in the recent big two events. He was in a similar position last year, needing a good result after a disappointing Masters, and he managed to reach the final. I think he will respond well again. He is now consistently beating his early opponents, so I would not expect Liu Song (or indeed Sari) to give him any major trouble, but his 2nd round opponent should be more difficult, especially if it's Graeme Dott. This would be a repeat of the semi-final last year, a great match which Selby won, and also another in the series of meetings between the two in recent times. I don't think either player has the edge in their rivalry at this point, so I would have to go for Selby as the higher seed. I think this could be a high-quality part of the draw actually, as both players are pretty good travelers, with good records outside of the UK, so in a way it's a shame they have drawn each other so early.
There are more contenders for the other QF spot, in fact, all four players have a decent chance. Let's start with Murphy, the biggest name here. During the Masters week, I thought he looked the best out of all players, the final was his only slightly poor match. He is obviously in good form, and unlike Robertson, he will still have the hunger now that he lost the final. It's been a while since he last won even a standard ranking event, although he has won a couple of minor titles recently. I think the Masters was his best major event for quite some time, which must be encouraging for him. The draw here is not exactly easy, but it's not too bad either, at least not until the QF. First there is Barry Hawkins, the shoot-out winner, although I'm not sure that's going to be in his favour here. He is a very good player on his day, a solid tactical game and breakbuilding at his own measured pace. The question is, does he have the firepower to beat an in-form Murphy? Do Gould or Walden? Gould in particular has found it a struggle to play Murphy in recent times, losing a couple of matches against him on the big stage. I think there is a big difference in experience between them, after all, Murphy played quite similar to Gould when he first came on the scene. But these days he is a very solid player, and you need a bit of tactical awareness to take him out. I think the better bet here is Ricky Walden, whom we didn't see at the Masters, but his performance in the UK was very good. In fact, it was he that took out Murphy on that occasion. He is another very good traveler, with some very good results in the Chinese events in the past. I think his match against Gould is one of the most promising 1st round prospects, and if it's anything like their match at the China Open last season, I am very much looking forward to it. As for the winner of this part of the draw, I'm still sticking with Murphy.
Quarter 4:
Judd Trump v. P.Davison/K.Wrobel
Mark Allen v. T.Ford/P.Arnold
Stephen Maguire v. Ryan Day
John Higgins v. Mark Davis
And finally the bottom quarter, a decent contender for the strongest quarter in my opinion. The 2nd round could see a repeat of the UK final, should see actually, as both players have quite reasonable opponents in the 1st round. I think Trump might be past his form peak at this point, but he has found that consistently decent game that should see him through against the slightly lesser players. The only danger perhaps could be the type of opponent he will be facing, a slow, hard battler, so he should look to take his chances and not let it become a scrap. We have seen how hard Krzysztof Wrobel tries at the World Cup earlier in the season, and I'm sure he will battle for every ball here as well. Then we have Mark Allen, likely to face a more established player in Tom Ford. Ford could be quite dangerous, having won a PTC not so long ago, but Allen clearly has the edge over him. They played two big matches in 2010, the WC and the UK, Allen won them both quite comfortably. What about the 2nd round then? Well, both players have had some success abroad, perhaps Allen more consistently than Trump, and I think he will be hungrier for a win here.
And the final spot? Once again, it could go to four players, but Higgins and Maguire stand out a bit. Not sure what to say about Higgins... we can talk about his great B-game again, his good record in the early rounds, the fact he is the World Champion I suppose, but I've said this ahead of pretty much every event this season, and it's been mostly disappointing from Higgins. I do think his form will pick up though. The mental batteries will surely re-charge at some point, and the hunger will come back. He won the UK and the WC with an extremely determined and concentrated game, kind of like the one Robertson played at the Masters, and he needs that sort of mode if he is to challenge for further titles. Mark Davis is not the easiest of opponents these days, so Higgins will have to be on it right from the start. Stephen Maguire? Once again I can only repeat myself and mention his lack of titles for the last couple of seasons, his occasional good performances in single matches, my feeling that his good form is just around the corner, but it never quite seems to happen for him. It doesn't help that he is facing Ryan Day in the 1st round either. Ok, Day hasn't done anything significant recently, but he is another "overseas" specialist who could take advantage here if the two seeds are off their game. If it should be Higgins against Maguire in the 2nd round, how is that likely to go? Hard to say again... Higgins has had more success in their recent matches, but he didn't win at the UK last month, so Maguire might have the slightest of edges.
Possible QF lineup:
Mark Williams v. Ding Junhui
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Matthew Stevens
Mark Selby v. Shaun Murphy
Mark Allen v. Stephen Maguire
So, a slightly less "safe" prediction this time, and I got it on time as well! :)
It should be a good snooker week, bring it on! :)