World Championship Prediction Contest

[bagpiper13579]

After 7 completed matches. Same format as previous update. Bagpiper and Mr Snooker successfully predicted Jamie Jones beating Shaun Murphy. Bagpiper, Dark, Stony and Odrl all predicted Lyu vs. Fu correctly. Mark Allen 10- Liam Highfield 5 was a popular prediction for result and score.

bagpiper13579 - 5-2 (2)
Dark - 4-3 (2)
Mr Snooker - 4-3 (1)
The Boss - 4-3 (0)
Stony152 - 4-3 (0)
Odrl - 4-3 (0)
JimMalone - 3-4 (1)

[bagpiper13579]

After 11 Completed Matches.

Everybody predicted Ding winning, but nobody predicted the score correctly. Bagpiper1357, JimMalone, and Odrl all correctly predicted Lisowski upsetting Bingham, but only Odrl correctly predicted the score. Dark and The Boss backed Brecel over Walden, while everyone else correctly predicted a minor upset for the Belgian, with both Mr Snooker and Stony152 predicting the score. Mr Snooker's score lightning would strike again, correctly predicting Hawkins 10-7 Carrington, while everyone else missed the score but got the outcome.

As such, Bagpiper1357 leads the leaderboard in correct outcome predictions, with Odrl in close second, Mr Snooker, JimMalone, and Stony152 tied for third in outcomes, and Dark and the Boss rounding out the field.

For score predictions, Mr Snooker has overtaken Bagpiper1357 and Dark for first place, with 3 correct scores. Bagpiper and Dark are tied for second on 2 correct scores, with Odrl, JimMalone, and Stony152 each on one, and The Boss still looking for his first correct score.

Bagpiper1357 - 9-2 (2)
Odrl - 8-3 (1)
Mr Snooker - 7-4 (3)
JimMalone - 7-4 (1)
Stony152 - 7-4 (1)
Dark - 6-5 (2)
The Boss - 6-5 (0)

[bagpiper13579]

would anyone be interested in a prediction contest throughout the world champions, starting out with the second round of qualifiers right through to final on May 7, say 5 points for the correct winner and also 10 if the lower ranked player wins and 20 points for the correct match score, also the highest break of the qualifiers and TV Stages of the event as well for 5 extra points. You can also predict quarterfinals, but the semi finals, the final and the world champion and you get 5 points for each if correct.
If you wish you can also predict the first round matches for fun

Just looking back to see how we wanted to score this originally. I'd like to ask if predicting (rather, really luckily guessing) the scores should be given as much weight as 4 correct non-upset predictions. Let's take a look at our table:

Bagpiper1357: 105 points (9 correct predictions, 4 of them upsets; 2 scores)
Mr Snooker: 105 Points (7 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 3 scores)
Odrl: 75 points (8 correct predictions, 3 of them upsets; 1 score)
Dark: 75 points (6 correct predictions, 1 of them an upset; 2 scores)
JimMalone: 65 points (7 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 1 score)
Stony152: 65 points (7 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 1 score)
The Boss: 35 points (6 correct predictions, 1 of them an upset; no scores)

Mr Snooker and I should be tied given the current amounts on 105 points, even though we have substantial disparity in match outcome predictions, and he and I are only 1 score prediction apart. Meanwhile, 2nd place is a tie between Odrl on 75 points (who has the second best prediction record for matches, but only 1 score) and Dark, who has tied for worst on match outcomes, but tied for second on scores. The Boss has a little chance of getting to win this thing, 70 points behind is the equivalent of correctly predicting an upset in 7 matches.

We have to remember that the weight of a correct score prediction drastically increases as more players get eliminated, because that ground will be much harder to make up with only 8 matches next round, then 4, etc. Since scores are more a matter of guessing rather than actual analysis or prediction, I think 20 points is too high a value. It means when we get to the quarter finals, someone who accurately predicts one non-upset match with the score will earn more points (25) than someone who predicts all four to be non-upsets, but doesn't get a score (20).

I humbly suggest the following revision: 5 points for a correct match outcome, 10 points for a correct upset prediction, and 10 points for a correct score.

As such, the table would read

Bagpiper1357: 85 points (9 correct predictions, 4 of them upsets; 2 scores)
Mr Snooker: 75 Points (7 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 3 scores)
Odrl: 65 points (8 correct predictions, 3 of them upsets; 1 score)
Dark: 55 points (6 correct predictions, 1 of them an upset; 2 scores)
JimMalone: 55 points (7 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 1 score)
Stony152: 55 points (7 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 1 score)
The Boss: 35 points (6 correct predictions, 1 of them an upset; no scores)

I know this looks bad in some ways, because it gives me the lead without a tie, but I think this scoring better reflects our individual results, and keeps things competitive based on accurate predictions of matches rather than hopeful guesses of scores that cannot be predicted scientifically.

Lastly, I suggest that, for the quarterfinals and semi-finals, all correct match outcomes be considered worth 10 points. That will balance the effect of having substantially fewer matches, and recognize that there aren't really "upsets" to be had at that stage onward. For the final, I suggest that both Match and Score prediction values be made 20 points.

[Odrl]

You can't really change the rules after the competition has started. :smile:

But since we're at it, I don't see why upsets should get a higher score than non-upsets in this contest. Surely the scoring system should encourage you to pick whoever you actually think will win, whereas the current system encourages you to always go for the lower-ranked player if you think it's a close call, because the reward is better. Just my opinion of course... :smile:

[bagpiper13579]

Fair enough on both counts. And again, I'm not trying to be an idiot about this; I really just think the point values are off for the spirit of the contest.

Also, after a certain point, an upset counting as a "lower ranked player beating a higher ranked player" is baloney. If a player gets to the QF of this world championship, they are a contender, regardless of ranking. I think that upsets can apply to the first two rounds of the tournament, but it shouldn't apply to every round. I might as well get double points for predicting an upset in the final, where anything can happen.

[attilahun]

JUST FOR FUN ...i am in with the first round matches who are yet to start :

John Higgins v. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh 10-5
Judd Trump v. Chris Wakelin 10-4
Anthony McGill v. Ryan Day 7-10

[Stony152]

I think I prefer the revised scoring method. It seems fairer. Predicting the actual score is mostly luck. In the future I'd suggest a system where if you are within one of the actual score you receive a bonus. So if you predict 10-7, you'd get a bonus for any of the results 10-6, 10-7, or 10-8. At that point there is some skill involved in that you are in the correct range of scores. Like I said, getting it exactly right is mostly luck.

[Odrl]

Whatever the system is, here are my predictions:

Mark Allen v. Joe Perry 13-11
Kyren Wilson v. Jamie Jones 13-8
John Higgins v. Jack Lisowski 13-9
Ricky Walden v. Judd Trump 10-13
Ricky Walden v. Chris Wakelin 13-9
Ding Junhui v. Ryan Day 13-11
Ding Junhui v. Anthony McGill 13-8
Barry Hawkins v. Lyu Haotian 11-13
Mark Williams v. Robert Milkins 13-7
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Ali Carter 13-6

[bagpiper13579]

After 14/16 first round matches:

Slow Day for news. Nobody predicted Neil Robertson crashing out to Milkins again, so WAAAAAHHH!!!!! Everybody predicted correctly that Higgins would beat Un-Nooh, and Williams would beat Jimmy Robertson.

Big news for scores though: The Boss got his first correct score for Higgins vs. Un-Nooh. Congrats The Boss! With that, he closes much of the gap between him and the rest of the bunch.

We also have a new competitor, attilahun, who has started off well by predicting the Higgins vs. Un-Nooh match outcome correctly.

Current Standings (original 5-10-20 system; please, let's decide which system we should use):
bagpiper13579: 115 points (11 correct predictions, 4 of them upsets: 2 scores)
Mr Snooker: 115 points (9 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 3 scores)
Odrl: 85 points (10 correct predictions, 3 of them upsets; 1 score)
Dark: 85 points (8 correct predictions, 1 of them an upset; 2 scores)
JimMalone: 75 points (9 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 1 score)
Stony152: 75 points (9 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 1 score)
The Boss: 65 points (8 correct predictions, 1 of them an upset; 1 score)
attilahun: 5 points (1 correct prediction, none of them upsets; no scores)

Current Standings (revised 5-10-10 system; 2 votes in favor so far! [inlcuding mine, which is biased])
bagpiper13579: 95 points (11 correct predictions, 4 of them upsets: 2 scores)
Mr Snooker: 85 points (9 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 3 scores)
Odrl: 75 points (10 correct predictions, 3 of them upsets; 1 score)
Dark: 65 points (8 correct predictions, 1 of them an upset; 2 scores)
JimMalone: 65 points (9 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 1 score)
Stony152: 65 points (9 correct predictions, 2 of them upsets; 1 score)
The Boss: 55 points (8 correct predictions, 1 of them an upset; 1 score)
attilahun: 5 points (1 correct prediction, none of them upsets; no scores)

[Dark]

My view is if you don't like the rules of competition then go start your own, don't just try and change someone else's rules. I don't care which rules are better.

[JimMalone]

Mark Allen - Joe Perry 13-11
Kyren Wilson - Jamie Jones 13-8
Jack Lisowski - John Higgins 13-10
Judd Trump - Ricky Walden 13-8
Ricky Walden - Chris Wakelin 13-10
Ding Junhui - Ryan Day 13-11
Ding Junhui - Anthony McGill 13-9
Barry Hawkins - Lyu Haotian 13-9
Mark Williams - Robert Milkins 13-8
Ronnie O'Sullivan - Ali Carter 13-5

[Mr Snooker]

Last 16 (best of 25 frames)

players head to head wins in brackets

1 Mark Allen (6) 13 Joe Perry (7) 9

2 Kyren Wilson (5) 13 Jamie Jones (1) 7

3 John Higgins MBE (2) 13 Jack Lisowki (1) 8

4 Judd Trump (11) 13 Ricky Walden (6) 7


5 Ding Junhui (3) 13 Anthony McGill (0) 8

6 Barry Hawkins (0) 13 Lyu Haotian (0) 5

7 Mark Williams MBE (5) 13 Robert Milkins (3) 7

8 Ronnie O' Sullivan OBE (15) 13 Allister Carter (1) 7

[Stony152]

Mark Allen 13-9 Joe Perry
Kyren Wilson 13-8 Jamie Jones
Jack Lisowski 13-11 John Higgins
Judd Trump 13-10 Ricky Walden
Ryan Day 13-12 Ding Junhui
Barry Hawkins 13-9 Lyu Haotian
Mark Williams 13-8 Robert Milkins
Ronnie O'Sullivan 13-8 Ali Carter

[Dark]

I am sure I put a set of these up a little while ago. Not sure what happened but they don't seem to be here.

Anyway, stealing Odrl's list I predict,

Mark Allen v. Joe Perry 13-6
Kyren Wilson v. Jamie Jones 13-10
John Higgins v. Jack Lisowski 13-11
Ricky Walden v. Judd Trump 13-8
Ricky Walden v. Chris Wakelin 13-6
Ding Junhui v. Ryan Day 13-8
Ding Junhui v. Anthony McGill 13-8
Barry Hawkins v. Lyu Haotian 13-12
Mark Williams v. Robert Milkins 13-5
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Ali Carter 13-3

[The Boss]

Mark Allen v. Joe Perry 9-13
Kyren Wilson v. Jamie Jones 13-8
John Higgins v. Jack Lisowski 13-12
Ricky Walden v. Judd Trump 8-13
Ricky Walden v. Chris Wakelin 13-5
Ding Junhui v. Ryan Day 13-8
Ding Junhui v. Anthony McGill 13-8
Barry Hawkins v. Lyu Haotian 13-8
Mark Williams v. Robert Milkins 13-7
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Ali Carter 13-6

:snooker: