2017 World Championship - Main Event

[DeanH]

Hermund on the ball

http://www.snooker.org/res/index.asp?event=536

1 Mark Selby [1] v Fergal O'Brien [45]
2 Ryan Day [16] v Xiao Guodong [44]
3 Neil Robertson [9] v Noppon Saengkham [72]
4 Marco Fu [8] v Luca Brecel [30]
5 Shaun Murphy [5] v Yan Bingtao [63]
6 Ronnie O'Sullivan [12] v Gary Wilson [59]
7 Liang Wenbo [13] v Stuart Carrington [48]
8 Ding Junhui [4] v Zhou Yuelong [37]
9 Stuart Bingham [3] v Peter Ebdon [42]
10 Kyren Wilson [14] v David Grace [51]
11 Mark Allen [11] v Jimmy Robertson [39]
12 John Higgins [6] v Martin Gould [18]
13 Barry Hawkins [7] v Tom Ford [32]
14 Allister Carter [10] v Graeme Dott [29]
15 Anthony McGill [15] v Stephen Maguire [24]
16 Judd Trump [2] v Rory McLeod [54]

[gmg]

Thanks Dean. No massively enticing matches but at least 8 of the seeds will have their work cut out to clear the first hurdle, particularly in the bottom half of the draw.

[jrc750]

Oh man Gary Wilson's been playing really well in the qualification rounds, then gets Ronnie !
If he gets past him then who knows

[Erwan_BZH]

Copy of what I wrote on the other thread :

Couple of thoughts:

- Selby v Fergie : this one is gonna finish on Monday lol I expect Mark to slaughter Fergal honestly, he's no match. Each mistake will be heavily punished but the slow play could drag this affair down to the wire.

- Fu v Brecel: should be an interesting one but I can't see Marco losing to Luca. Way too much experience for Marco against the usual brainfarts from the Belgium Bullet.

- Murphy vs Bingtao : this gonna be a cracker and has the potential for a massive upset here. Murphy will have to be really solid and focus to counter the young Chinese who will have nothing to lose.

- ROS vs Wilson : Not a bad draw for Ronnie, I think it will be an easy match for him, despite Wilson's form in the quals.

- Ding vs Zhou : cracker as well between two guys who are training together all the time. I favor Ding but can't sweep away the idea that Zhou could create a surprise.

- Bingham v Ebdon : dear me.....will not watch this one, no way.....

- Higgins v Gould: tough draw for Higgins but I don't see him losing. He's still my favorite to win it all this year.

- McGill v Maguire : the Tartan Tussle! An all Scottish affair between two of my favorite players. Will be heartbreaking to see one lose. Should be a great game and a tough one to guess. Somehow, I will wish Maguire to get through but would be surprised if McGill will push him all the way to a decider a win the match. Should be a nice game to watch !

- Trump v McLeod : easy starter here for Trump, should be no match really. His second round match though, versus the winner of the Scottish derby, will be much tastier


Let the show begin !!!!!!

[Neil Taperell]

WS have extended the length of the Tournament by one week to take into account the Selby / O'Brien match

[Byrom]

[QUOTE=DeanH;925954]Hermund on the ball

http://www.snooker.org/res/index.asp?event=536

1 Mark Selby [1] v Fergal O'Brien [45] Selby
2 Ryan Day [16] v Xiao Guodong [44] Xiao upset here
3 Neil Robertson [9] v Noppon Saengkham [72] Robertson - wining the whole thing
4 Marco Fu [8] v Luca Brecel [30] Fu
5 Shaun Murphy [5] v Yan Bingtao [63] Bingtao upset here
6 Ronnie O'Sullivan [12] v Gary Wilson [59] Gary Wilson upset here
7 Liang Wenbo [13] v Stuart Carrington [48] Stuart Carrington upset here
8 Ding Junhui [4] v Zhou Yuelong [37] Ding
9 Stuart Bingham [3] v Peter Ebdon [42] Peter Ebdon upset here
10 Kyren Wilson [14] v David Grace [51] Kyren wilson
11 Mark Allen [11] v Jimmy Robertson [39]Mark Allen
12 John Higgins [6] v Martin Gould [18] John Higgins
13 Barry Hawkins [7] v Tom Ford [32] Barry Hawkins
14 Allister Carter [10] v Graeme Dott [29] Dott upset here
15 Anthony McGill [15] v Stephen Maguire [24] Maguire
16 Judd Trump [2] v Rory McLeod [54] Trump


That's my predictions

[andy carson]

WS have extended the length of the Tournament by one week to take into account the Selby / O'Brien match

hahaha good one

[Neil Taperell]

That's only provisional as well.......there is another day in for contingency should it go to a last frame decider .

[JimMalone]

[QUOTE=Byrom;925970]

Hermund on the ball

http://www.snooker.org/res/index.asp?event=536

1 Mark Selby [1] v Fergal O'Brien [45] Selby
2 Ryan Day [16] v Xiao Guodong [44] Xiao upset here
3 Neil Robertson [9] v Noppon Saengkham [72] Robertson - wining the whole thing
4 Marco Fu [8] v Luca Brecel [30] Fu
5 Shaun Murphy [5] v Yan Bingtao [63] Bingtao upset here
6 Ronnie O'Sullivan [12] v Gary Wilson [59] Gary Wilson upset here
7 Liang Wenbo [13] v Stuart Carrington [48] Stuart Carrington upset here
8 Ding Junhui [4] v Zhou Yuelong [37] Ding
9 Stuart Bingham [3] v Peter Ebdon [42] Peter Ebdon upset here
10 Kyren Wilson [14] v David Grace [51] Kyren wilson
11 Mark Allen [11] v Jimmy Robertson [39]Mark Allen
12 John Higgins [6] v Martin Gould [18] John Higgins
13 Barry Hawkins [7] v Tom Ford [32] Barry Hawkins
14 Allister Carter [10] v Graeme Dott [29] Dott upset here
15 Anthony McGill [15] v Stephen Maguire [24] Maguire
16 Judd Trump [2] v Rory McLeod [54] Trump


That's my predictions

Do the blue and red colors have any specifically meaning?

[tony9ball68]

The draw makes Higgins great value, generally 16/1, thats 8/1 he reaches the final with the bottom half looking much easier. Ridiculous value, I know where my money is going

[itsnoteasy]

Aww no, McGill got Maguire

[Byrom]

[QUOTE=JimMalone;925980]

Do the blue and red colors have any specifically meaning?

yes - they mean I have been a member on here 6 years and I am still to stupid to edit [U]anything[/U] properly

[Ronnie's tip]

The top half of the draw is stacked.

[JimMalone]

My Preview

Quarter 1
Mark Selby has to be the favorite for the 2017 World Snooker Championship. He has been the best player in the world the last few years and this season has been his most dominant. Well, at least the first half of it, when he won the two most important tournaments of this season so far, the UK Championship as well as the International Championship. Especially at York he produced some of his best snooker ever and showed with his complete game he is nearly unplayable then. And he has the well-known bonus that even when he is not at his best, he is sooo diffcult to beat, because he has such great tactics.
Selby also showed some weaknesses this year though. He had quite a poor run between January and March, losing early in most of the tournaments and some of this losses were to far lesser ranked players. Most those defeats were in short matches though and we know the longer ones prefer the better players.
Despite being the big favorite he probably hasn’t even such a big pressure. He won twice already, he will stay world number #1 definitely, other players have more urgent „need“ to win snookers most prestigious tournament this year. But is this an advantage? Selby usually is playing his best, when the pressure is on, which shows another facet of his, namely that he is probably the mentally strongest player on the circuit. This could help overcome him a few obstacles. First that since 1998 no player, who won the last event before the World Championship went on to triumph in Sheffield. And second that only Steve Davis (3 times), Stephen Hendry (4 times) and Ronnie O’Sullivan (once) were able to successfully defend their title at the Crucible. If another player will match this achievement, it should be Mark Selby though.

Of course the draw is another big hurdle. Not in the first round. Fergal O’Brien can be an inconvenient opponent, but Selby usually isn’t the guy, whose play confounds when playing somebody like the Irishman. Also in the second round Selby should be the clear favorite. He could meet Ryan Day. They met two times this season with Selby winning 5-3 at the Shanghai Masters and 5-4 at the Players Championship. Selby also won their both encounters at the UK Championship in 2011 and 2012, so Day also hasn’t an advantage in this department and I also don’t think he hast he best nerves to beat Selby. Day also has a tricky match-up in the first round though, with Xiao Guodong being in good form and this is one of the upsets I’d call this year.
In the quarterfinals there lures a match that I personally would love to see. A rematch of last years semifinal between Mark Selby and Marco Fu. It was a tight contest over the whole game and Selby found a way to win narrowly 17-15. Fu, who is playing his best season, knows how to beat Selby though. He did so convincingly at the Players Championship this season and he beat Selby in longer matches at the UK Championship and International Championship before. Fu has a very, very good all-round game himself. In fact I’d call him one of the most complete players of the tour behind the likes of Selby and Higgins.

Marco Fu meanwhile has been the 6th best player this season. He celebrated his highlight of course, when he beat John Higgins 9-4 after being 1-4 down in the final of the Scottish Open, winning his third ranking title with a tremendous performance. He also should have reached the final of the UK Championship, when he had a very good chance to beat O’Sullivan in the deciding frame of their semifinal, just missing a makeable green. Most importantly those strong play and results seemed to give Fu confidence as he collected some more good results with semifinals at the Grand Prix (4-6 to Day) and the Masters (4-6 to O’Sullivan) as well as a final at the Players Championship, where he lead Judd Trump 5-2 before losing 8-10.
The man from Hongkong opens against Luca Brecel. In another year I’d say that Fu could easily fall to such an aggressive player, when Brecel hits his form on the right day. Cause Fu usually has no fear against big names, but ha soften been victim to a surprise. But in the second half of this season Fu was mostly so composed that I don’t see him going out that early.
The number-8 of the tournament then could have an intriguing encounter with Neil Robertson. They only met once this season, with Marco Fu beating the Australian 4-3 on route to his title at the Scottish Open. This alone doesn’t tell so much, but actually if you look on both players seasons you‘d have to make Fu the favorite despite Robertson being the bigger name.
Robertson has had a poor season by his standard. He began fine by winning the Riga Masters, then got to the Semifinals of two of the next three ranking events he entered. He had a string where he suffered five early exits in a row, also in the UK Championship and the International Championship. How weak he was shows best in the ranking of this season, which lists Robertson only as #14! Thats ridiculous for his abilities. There is some light of hope though, cause recently his results got a bit better again.
However I got the feeling that he has lost a bit of his ability in scrappy frames. He can score heavy, but makes to many mistakes without drawing advantage from his opponents mistakes. Also he lost in the first round of last years World Championship (6-10 to Michael Holt), which could be positive: Cause he never suffered two first-round-defeats in a row at the Crucible and Noppon Saengkham should be beatable, so the Aussie maybe has time to find his rhythm.

Usually when determining the winner of the World Championship it was a good way during the last years to look for somebody who didn’t have that much success during the season. And this obviously would fit good to Robertson. So he should be on the list of candidates for the title.

Quarter 2:
Maybe the most difficult quarter, albeit Ronnie O’Sullivan can be quite happy to be here. He opens against Gary Wilson, who was heavily scoring in the qualifiers, but that alone usually isn’t good enough to beat O’Sullivan. But the good news is that the two highest seeds in his section are Ding Junhui and Shaun Murphy of all people. Among the top players those are the two Ronnie has usually fared the best against.

O’Sullivan could meet Murphy already in the second round and so far he has beat him in four of five duels in ranking events, among them twice in the World Championship with one being a heavy 13-3 thrashing three years ago. There’s some hope for Murphy as he won the last encounter at the 2015 German Masters 5-4.
Murphy has to get past his very tricky opening opponent Yan Bingtao first though. Yan is the second youngest player to ever get into the main draw of he World Championship at the Crucible. They played two times this year, both matches went to a decider, both players won one of them. Because of Yans talent this is one match, where many people would scent an upset, myself including. But Murphy has always been reliable in the crucible, making the quarterfinals 8 of his last 12 appearances here and this includes three finals fort he 2005 World Champion. Yan is a debutant so this could play well into Murphys cards as well. So I’d rather say the Englishman gets further.

The other end of this quarter is chinese loaded. Is this a trap for Ding, who opens against 19-year old countryman Zhou, who probably idolises Ding as most of the young chinese players? Zhou has already a suprising well all-around game, so it’s a difficult task. Also mentally maybe, cause Ding is the huge favorite here. And the mental part is not only most the deciding one in Snooker, but especially in Ding’s case. He had a very tough season with his mother dying. And what a great story it would be, when Junhui finally gets fulfills his dream and the one of whole China and becomes World Champion. He played some good Snooker this year, garnering actually the third most ranking points among all players and while his best run was in autumn and he had a few off-tournaments he was lately improving again after a few bad tournaments.
Second round would be tricky again though. Ding could meet another countryman in Liang Wenbo, who plays a different, much more attacking game than Ding, who has the better all-around game though.

And in the quarterfinals he could run into his bogey player O’Sullivan. I really don’t know why this head-to-head is so one-sided, because Ding clearly has everything to beat Ronnie. But he did so only once and this was eleven years ago at the Northern Ireland trophy…
Personally I’m quite sure it’s a mental thing again. And those are the most difficult to erase. But maybe last years run at Sheffield, when he reached the final has helped Ding enough to get over some of his mental weaknesses. Maybe he can eliminate another burden now and also beat O’Sullivan this year? If he does I actually would think this could give Ding enough selfconsciousness to go all the way to the title. I have just the feeling it's Dings time, so I'll probably tip him to win it all this year.

Quarter 3
Let’s go to the bottom half, which I think is a bit easier.
While Stuart Bingham was actually the seventh best player that season, he hasn’t impressed me in a way like some other players. As often his game was totally solid, but not at the highest level in most departments. Also I think it would be somehow surreal if he joins the likes of Mark Williams or Mark Selby as a two-time world champion. But it’s likely he won’t go out early, because for once he has quite an easy starter I think with Peter Ebdon, whose best times are far behind him, and Bingham also made five ranking semifinals this season as well as the final at the China Championship. On the other hand Bingham also has three first-round-defeats, so who knows.
His draw is also pretty favorable. At least on first sight. But he could meet Kyren Wilson next, if the young Englishman as expected beats David Grace, though Wilson is always a candidate for going out early, and actually Bingham hasn’t fared well against his compatriot so far. Wilson beat Bingham comfortably at the China Open, the last event before the World Championship and also the other duel in a ranking event was won by Wilson – though this was already four years ago. But so far Wilson won 16 of the 20 frames (if you include Championship League) they played against each other. It’s still a very small sample, but it might indicate something – or also not.

In the quarter-finals Bingham or Wilson could meet John Higgins or Mark Allen. And to me Higgins is far more likely. Mark Allen had quite a disastrous season if we just look at ranking events. He made the quarter-finals only once (at Northern Ireland) and was only the 32nd best player this season. So he urgently needs a good result at Sheffield if he doesn’t want to be in danger of rattling down the rankings next season. He actually had a good form in the invitation tournaments in November reaching the semifinals at the China Championship and the Champion of Champions, but apart from this he was more eye-catching when he was away from the Snooker tables...

John Higgins had a similiar season to Allen in that regard, that he played his best Snooker in November. He won the China Championship and the Champion of Champions, and lost just 5-6 to a very strong Selby in a great quarterfinal at the UK Championship. He then also made the final of the Scottish Open in December, leading 4-1 against Fu, before atypically losing 8-9. Maybe that hurt him, cause since then he wasn’t the same player anymore, going never further than the 3rd round in a tournament. But this were the China Open, the last tournament. So maybe Higgins form is ascending.
We all know what a great and especially complete player Higgins is. Similar to Selby the four-time World Champion can also rely on a strong Plan B, if he is not at his best. But those last months were just pretty poor, full of easy mistakes. And at the World Championship you usually can’t afford this, as the rivals are so strong. It doesn’t help Higgins, that his first opponent is one of the most dangerous qualifiers in Martin Gould. Mentality should be a strong advantage for the Scotsman in this duel, as Gould often has problems to finish the job when facing big names, though he beat Higgins at the 2015 Shanghai Masters.
This doesn’t count for Allen though, who has a far easier opening opponent in Jimmy Robertson. And while Allen is absolutely inconsinstent and I don’t think he has the physical shape to go really deep this tournament, he could be strong in the second round. Allen and Higgins faced four times this season, with every player winning two. The last one was a 4-1-victory by Allen at Gibraltar, who also won 6-5 at the Masters, while Higgins remained victorious at the UK Championship (6-3) and the China Championship (9-3).

I don’t know if Higgins, who is already 41 years now, still has the stamina for five long matches at the Crucible. But I’m pretty sure, if he surpasses his first two rounds, he will be dangerous. Though I thought this last year as well after his strong display against Day and Walden, before he fall apart against McManus. A quarterfinal of Higgins against Bingham or Wilson would be interesting, because I really don’t know who I’d make the favorite then. Probably depends of their display in the first rounds. Higgins has the highest abilites, but Bingham is the most consistent.

Quarter 4
This is one of the rather rare occasions in my memory, where the two top seeds are also the two top favorites at the World Championship. While Mark Selby has been the best player this season, Judd Trump has not only been the second best, but especially the most consistent. In 9 of the 13 ranking events he entered he made at least the quarterfinals, five times he was in the final. But he „only“ won two titles – at the European Masters and more recently at the Players Championship.
This seasons Judd Trump is definitely the best version I’ve seen. He is probably the best potter in the game and scores heavily almost in every game, just because of this ability. His break-building is very good, though he is often careless with his cueball control and relies strongly on his potting. And while he made steps into the right direction he still lacks a great shot selection and I’m also not convinced about his mental strength when it counts at the end of such an important tournament. Though he won the UK Championship already. And maybe his latest title at the Players Championship will also help him in this department.

Helpfully is also that he has a good draw and I honestly don't see him losing before the quarterfinals this time. Trump usually beats lesser players, cause he always has enough firepower and so Rory McLeod shouldn’t be a real threat to him. In the next round he’ll meet a Scotsman.
Cause there is one of the most interesting first round matches in Anthony McGill – Stephen Maguire. A repeat of the first round of 2015, when McGill upset his fellow Scotsman with 10-9. This time it would be the other way around though, as McGill is the favorite. It has to be said though that without the win in the travesty called Shoot-Out McGill would have been number 17 in the world instead of 15 and would have had to qualify. He has the better all around game than Maguire, who can score more heavily though, and the better temper. Maybe Maguire can capitalize from the fact that for once, after four first round defeats at the Crucible, nobody is expecting anything from him. Both had similiar seasons, pretty so-so. They started good, McGill with a win at the India Open and three quarter-finals, after this he was finished though. Maguire had a semifinal at Shanghai and again in China a quarterfinal at Beijing just before the World Championship. He played well in qualifying and I might go with him despite his temper.
Whom would Trump prefer? He hasn’t played McGill often and only in short formats. Also most of the duels where at a time, when McGill wasn’t as good as he is now, but while Trump would be the favorite I think McGill could give him more trouble than Maguire. The latter one actually leads the head-to-head against Trump, but here it is the other way around. Many of the matches happened, when Trump wasn’t as good as he is now and especially, when Maguire was still a contender. The World Number 2 won the last two battles at the 2016 Masters and the 2016 China Open (6-0 at this point) and I think right now Trump is just better as Maguire at the Scots own style of game.

Also in this quarter is Barry Hawkins, who opens against Tom Ford, who is a pretty solid player. It’s just that while Hawkins maybe isn’t at the top of the game in any aspects, he also has little weaknesses. He played some of the more memorable World Championship matches in recent times, beating Neil Robertson in a great quarterfinal in 2015 and winning a decider last year against Ronnie O’Sullivan. As well as being in the final in the 2013 edition of course. His record in Sheffield is so much better than anywhere else, Hawkins obviously loves this setting. He also played well lately. He won the Grand Prix and made quarterfinals (German Masters and Welsh Open) before and afterwards as well. Only his 0-5 loss at the Players Championship, his last ranking event before the World Championship as he had lost in the qualifiers for the China Open, is a setback. I actually I could see Hawkins winning in a similiar way as Bingham in 2015. Similiar player types, nobody would really think that he is going to win, and he even has a much better career already than Bingham had before his great coup.
In the second round Hawkins would play the winner between Ali Carter and Graeme Dott, which should be one of the closest games of the first round. Both are tough fighters, but obviously Carter has been the much better player lately. He won the World Open this year and was finalist at the German Masters, as well as Semifinalist in the Players Championship, while Dott did … nothing. Carter has to be the favorite, but I say this about nearly any seed this year and there always plenty of upsets so this is a match where I will call one. I’m pretty sure Hawkins also wants Dott to win, cause he has a much better record against the Scotsman than against Carter, though he hasn’t played him in a meaningful match in over two years.

This isn’t exactly the strongest section oft he draw though. And I’m pretty sure, if Trump is in the quarterfinal he will fancy his chances against any of the four possible players. So Trump really has to be content with his possible way to the title.

As for a ranking of title contenders I’d go this way:
Tier 1:
Selby
Trump
O’Sullivan

Tier 2:
Ding
Fu
Higgins

Tier 3:
Murphy
Robertson
Hawkins
Bingham
You could put Tier 2 and 3 together to one though.

So I make a fun and try to predict the whole bracket, knowing it would already be good if I get more than 50 percent of the 2nd round:

1st round:
1 Mark Selby [1] - Fergal O'Brien [45]
2 Ryan Day [16] v Xiao Guodong [44]
3 Neil Robertson [9] v Noppon Saengkham [72]
4 Marco Fu [8] v Luca Brecel [30]
5 Shaun Murphy [5] v Yan Bingtao [63]
6 Ronnie O'Sullivan [12] v Gary Wilson [59]
7 Liang Wenbo [13] v Stuart Carrington [48]
8 Ding Junhui [4] v Zhou Yuelong [37]
9 Stuart Bingham [3] v Peter Ebdon [42]
10 Kyren Wilson [14] v David Grace [51]
11 Mark Allen [11] v Jimmy Robertson [39]
12 John Higgins [6] v Martin Gould [18]
13 Barry Hawkins [7] v Tom Ford [32]
14 Allister Carter [10] v Graeme Dott [29]
15 Anthony McGill [15] v Stephen Maguire [24]
16 Judd Trump [2] v Rory McLeod [54]

It's always tough to call upsets, this is already implicated in the definition of this word. And especially this year I just don't see them. I picked five which seems like about just a little beneath average. Usually there is at least one shocker and it could be Ding or Fu, but I decided to go with Higgins, who can go out in round 1 or win the whole thing, depending on his form (same goes for Ding, but for him it's a mental question)
Liang looks like a predestined victim to an upset, but somehow I don't see him losing to Carrington. Same nearly for Allen, but I just decided to risk it here.

2nd round:
Selby – Xiao
N. Robertson – Fu (tough, but I really like Fu lately)
Murphy – O’Sullivan
Liang – Ding
Bingham – Wilson (Wilson was great in Beijing, think he will hit a similar form here)
J. Robertson – Gould (there we would have or surprise quarterfinalist)
Hawkins – Dott
Maguire - Trump

Quarterfinals
Selby - Fu (if this match happens it would be very open IMO, Fu is one of the players with the best chance to beat Selby)
O'Sullivan - Ding (a very risky pick, but I think the point has to come where Ding beats O'Sullivan again)
Wilson - Gould (Wilson is mentally stronger)
Hawkins - Trump (can imagine this being a thriller)

Semifinals:
Selby - Ding (after his win over O'Sullivan Ding is flying)
Wilson - Trump (Trump is just too strong)

Final:
Ding - Trump

This is of course pure speculation and gut feeling. Ask me tomorrow and I'll probably say Selby beats Higgins in the final.

[Rane]

If Jim Malones guess falls out right, I would be very happy with the outcome.