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I hope you don't mind me posting this in a separate thread, but tradition dictates we have a little poll before the tournament starts... :smile:
It is the ninth and final major ranking event of the season, and the one we have all been waiting for. Before qualifying started, we were talking about there being five or six really dangerous players whom no one would want to draw in the first round this year, but quite a few of them have been filtered out now, most notably Yan Bingtao, Martin Gould and Liang Wenbo. The seeds, on the other hand, include a couple of players who have been struggling recently, and another couple who had to skip several events for different reasons. I think we might see some surprises in the 1st round, as nearly always, but as far as the main title contenders are concerned, I think the Championship is not as open this time as it was in some of the previous years.
For one final time, let's attempt to answer the question everyone is asking... Who is going to win the 2018 World Championship?
As usual, let's start at the other end, with a couple of players who really have no chance of winning this title. Chris Wakelin is one of the four Crucible debutants this year, and just playing at the Crucible is already the highlight of a fairly mediocre season for him. He's failed to reach the business end in any event this season, and he only has two ranking quarter-finals in his career so far, both in the short format. Similar story with Liam Highfield, another Crucible debutant. I remember hearing about him even before he turned professional, but he is 27 now and never made much of an impact on the main tour. He reached the QF of a ranking event for the first time this season, but even then it was only the short-format Indian Open. All in all, he has done little better than Wakelin this season, so it would be a big surprise if either of these two played a major role in this Championship.
Jimmy Robertson is a more familiar face at the Crucible. He made his debut in 2011 when he lost 10-1 to Selby, and I still remember how he annoyed me in one of the frames when he wouldn't play on for snookers, even though the balls were placed perfectly and he didn't need all that many. I know I always mention this with him, but I made a mental note at the time, thinking he wouldn't have much success in the game without more fighting spirit. Well, he hasn't really, but this season has still been his best ever, including a run to the QF of the German Masters in the traditional format. He hasn't won a match at any venue since February though. Stuart Carrington is another player who has done very little in the game, and no notable runs this season either, but he can be a dangerous player on his day. He made three centuries in a row against Liang at the Crucible last year, in taking a 5-2 lead, so I don't think he will struggle with the Crucible atmosphere. It's tough to see him getting on a run on wins though.
There are another couple of debutants I think we can safely rule out. Lyu Haotian is by far the youngest player in the field this year, at only 20 years of age. He was only 14 when he reached the QF of the International Championship in 2012, and at that time I thought he could potentially be a future World champion, but he didn't really produce anything special in the following years. He's made a bit of a breakthrough this season though, with a run to the SF of the Northern Ireland Open in November, and he's managed to climb up the rankings as well. It looks like he was scoring quite well in qualifying, so I look forward to seeing him play at the Crucible. I think he could potentially be a danger in the section he's in, but realistically he doesn't quite have a mature enough game to really challenge the top players. On a different note, I bet the commentators butcher his name really badly again (sorry PatBlock :smile
. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh would have been disappointed not to reach the Crucible last year, but this year it's a pleasant surprise to see him here. He has had a pretty dreadful season by his standards, dropping way down the rankings, so this is a chance for him to start going in the right direction again. As great a potter as he is though, he doesn't really have the all-round game to challenge for the title here. I will also mention Jamie Jones in this little group. He is not a debutant of course, but he is close to the other two in the rankings and has had similar results this season. He played wonderful snooker to reach the QF at the Crucible in 2012, and we've seen that kind of form from him on occasion since, but sadly not as often as he would have liked. It's nice to see him getting through the qualifiers, his whitewash of Liang being particularly impressive, but I'm expecting his run to end fairly early here. It's interesting that he drew Murphy in the 1st round though, the exact opponent he very surprisingly beat at the same stage in 2012. :smile:
Of the older players, I think we can safely rule out Matthew Stevens as well. It's true that his record at the Crucible is superb, with eight runs to at least the QF in his first ten appearances here, but that's pretty much ancient history now. He hasn't played at the business end of any tournament, minor or major, in almost four years, so I definitely don't think we'll see any miracles here. The same goes for Robert Milkins, who took advantage of what I thought was a fairly weak section in qualifying. It's interesting that he drew Neil Robertson in the 1st round here, having played superbly to beat him 10-8 in the 1st round in 2013. He also beat Robertson on his way to the QF in Belfast, which was Milkins' only notable run this season. Unfortunately he followed it up by failing to win a match at any venue since new year. Could he beat Robertson again here? Well, even if he does, I can't see him getting past the likes of Williams or O'Sullivan in the bottom quarter...
To continue with the veterans, I would also rule out Joe Perry on this occasion. He has had notable results in all of the biggest events in snooker in the past, including runs to the SF of the World, the UK and the International Championship, and of course the final of the Masters last season, so his ability to play on the big stage is not in question. His season also hasn't been too bad, though probably not quite as successful as he would have liked. I think he is definitely on the list of players Selby didn't want to draw in the opening round, especially since the matches are still relatively short at this stage. That said, Perry has never won any ranking event outside of the PTC series, so it's tough to see him starting with the World title at the age of 43. Graeme Dott won the World title when he was 29 back in 2006, then went on to win the China Open the following season, but since then he has not really been a strong contender in the major events. I'm sure some people will remember that I didn't really give him much of a chance against Carter in the 1st round last year, but he played alright to win 10-7, so I will definitely not be making the same mistake again here. Especially as the balance of power is completely different this year, with Dott having reached his first major final in almost eight years at the German Masters. He's played the World final on three occasions in the past, so he definitely has the game and the mental strength to get through the rounds at the Crucible, but I don't think he has the required consistency anymore.
It's nice to see Xiao Guodong playing well again. It was a travesty for him to drop so far down the rankings, because he really is a very solid player once he finds a bit of form. He's reached three ranking quarter-finals this season, some bigger than others, and he could have perhaps gone even further on a couple of occasions, if only he had a little more luck and composure at crucial times. I think the longer matches definitely suit him, as he sometimes takes a while to find his scoring rhythm. He could definitely be a danger to many players here, but no matter how well he plays, I don't think he currently has enough firepower to go all the way in an event of this stature. The same probably goes for Jack Lisowski, though "firepower" is the one thing he has plenty of, while the other elements of his game are still a little lacking. Whatever happens at the Crucible, this has been by far the best season of Lisowski's career so far, with runs to the business end of two major tournaments in China, as well as quite a few notable victories against top players on the big stage. I've criticised him quite a lot in the past for his lack of composure under pressure and his suspect tactical game, and while that criticism may still be justified to a large extent, there is no doubt he has made a large step forward in his game this season. Could he play a big part at the Crucible as well? Well, he lost quite heavily to Hawkins in his only previous appearance here, but I expect him to do much better this time. As for actually having a crack at the World title, I think more improvement is needed, so it will still have to wait a year or two.
There are a couple of seeds I am not sure about this year. Marco Fu is the big mystery really, having missed all of the events after new year, and his results prior to that were quite poor by his standards as well. There is no doubt Fu has the class to compete with anyone in the game. The fact that he is still comfortably in the top16 even after such a long absence shows how strong he was before all of this, and it takes more than just a few months away from the game for someone to forget how to play good snooker. On the other hand, coming to a big tournament with no match practice can be difficult, but we've seen players have success in similar circumstances in the past. Fu has always struggled with inconsistency though, so I have my doubts about his chances here. Another seed I am unsure about is Ali Carter, who has shown very little form since his two decent runs in China in the first part of the season. As I've said on a couple of occasions this season, I am a little disappointed by Carter's negative attitude and lack of fight when things are not going his way. For someone who has had so many setbacks in life and dealt with them admirably, he could do with bringing some of that fighting spirit to the snooker table. You just can't win the World title if you give up in the middle of matches, like Carter did against Gould in Daqing this season. He played superbly to reach two finals at the Crucible in the past, but I would be pleasantly surprised if he came anywhere near a third one this year. :smile: I am also reluctant to put Anthony McGill among the genuine contenders here, as he has not really proven himself on the big stage yet. Well, that's a little unfair perhaps, considering how well he played in his wins over Selby and Murphy at the Crucible in recent years, but it's true that most of his best results have come in the short format, including a string of good runs in the first part of this season. But this is the proper stuff here, and McGill has never been beyond the quarter-finals in any event with matches of at least medium length, which is a somewhat unusual statistic for a top16 player. I'm sure he will put this right at some point in the near future, but for now, he is not among the top contenders for me.
We also have a couple of strong qualifiers who probably don't make the cut either. Stephen Maguire stands out immediately, one of the best players in the world for a number of years during his prime, but not so much these days. The Crucible was a bit of nightmare for him in the 2013-2016 period, with four 1st round defeats in a row, three of them in deciding frames. He was a seeded player in all of those, and he talked about not being able to get himself up for those matches for some reason. Last year he had to go through the qualifiers for the first time since 2005, and he came to the Crucible match sharp and thrashed his first two opponents, looking a lot more like his old self. Could something similar happen this time? He is certainly playing better this season than in some of the previous ones, the highlight being his run to the SF of the UK Championship, and of course he is still young enough to find the kind of form he had in the past. That said, he drew O'Sullivan in the 1st round here, for the third time in his career I think, so there absolutely won't be any time for him to play himself into the tournament. He's made decent efforts against O'Sullivan in two semi-finals this season, but ultimately he was a couple of frames short on both occasions, and I fear that might happen here as well. I will also mention Ricky Walden in this group. In terms of recent results, there is no real case to be made for him being a genuine contender here, but I am still a little reluctant to rule him out completely. We know what a great player he was not too long ago, and I think he is way too young to be dismissed here. He's won three major ranking events in the past, which may not sound like a lot, but all of them were proper events with matches of medium length, unlike some of the stuff that sadly carries ranking status these days. The highlight of his career so far has been winning the 2014 International Championship in the best-of-11 format, and if you look through all the events with a similar format played in the last ten years or so, you won't find any outsiders among the winners. Walden really did play world-class snooker in the events he won, and I hope he can rediscover some of that form at some point in the future. He made four centuries in his final qualifying round for this event, so the signs are not too bad...
That leaves the 14 players who, in my opinion, have at least an outside chance of winning this title.
Ryan Day is the only qualifier I would include in this group. As much as I dislike the fact that the line between short-format crap and proper snooker has been firmly erased in most people's eyes now, and despite not giving Day as much credit for his "ranking" titles as some of the snooker commentators and journalists do, it's hard to argue with his results this season. Winning three tournaments in a season is impressive, even if they are relatively minor ones. And it's not as if he only played well in the short matches, he also reached the SF of the UK Championship this season, showing great composure to win three deciders back to back. I think it's fair to say that mental strength was never considered to be his strong point in the past, but this season he seems to have found some self-belief to play his best snooker when the pressure is on, and he doesn't seem to panic if he goes a few frames behind either. Obviously he has always been a very strong potter and break-builder, and while his safety game was considered to be below average when he was at the top of his game in the 2008-2010 period, I think he now has the experience to make correct decisions in most situations, so he doesn't really have a major weakness in his game. I think McGill is a favourable 1st round draw for him as well. Day has reached the QF at the Crucible on three occasions in the past, can he go even further this year?
Luca Brecel would not be my pick for the title here, but you can't overlook someone who has won a major tournament this season. It's true that it was the first proper event of the season, played during the summer when quite a few players tend to be some way off their best form, and it didn't really take anything brilliant from Brecel to win it, but it still showed he had the game and the nerve to take major titles when given the opportunity. The following couple of months suggested he would become a solid top16 player for the foreseeable future, but unfortunately he has struggled to put any results together since new year. Last year he lost from a long way in front against Fu in the opening round, which must have been hard to take, but it seems to have made him a better player this season. His main strength is being able to score heavily and very quickly if he is allowed to get into his rhythm, whereas his decision-making and tactical awareness are a little suspect. He also tends to play a little too casually at times, rushing through some of his shots without giving them proper consideration, especially when matches go scrappy. I commented on this during his match against Cao Yupeng at the recent China Open. It went very scrappy after the interval, with lots of mistakes from both players, but it was clear that Cao was giving it his very best effort, whereas Brecel never quite seems to give me that impression. As I said, he is not my first choice here, but I can see why some people would include him on their list of contenders.
It's difficult to predict what Stuart Bingham can do this year. He missed a big part of the season with several of the biggest events, so it's tough to compare his results with those of the other top players. He reached a ranking final just before his suspension, and he played alright in the recent China Open to reach the QF, but that's about all one can say about his season. We know he has the class to win this title, having won at the Crucible before in 2015, in one of the best Championships in recent memory in terms of the standard of play. You can never quite tell with him... Sometimes he will struggle for no particular reason, but the next time you see him he plays amazing stuff, winning frame after frame in a single visit. He's never been a flashy player or a particularly outstanding shot maker, but that ability to score relentlessly in big matches has been the main reason for his success in recent years, and there is no reason to think he can't produce it again this year. You can see that some players who are expected to win the WC but haven't done so yet are under a lot of pressure when we get to the Crucible, Ding and Trump for example, but there is none of that with Bingham. No one really expected him to ever win a World title, including himself in all likelihood, so he can relax in the knowledge that he has already won the biggest prize in snooker, and everything else is just a bonus now.
That kind of attitude is not always helpful though, as Neil Robertson discovered after he won everything there is to win in snooker. Like Mark Williams did in 2004, I think Robertson took his foot off the gas completely after winning the 2015 UK title, which caused him to drop down the rankings and even miss out on the Masters this year. Luckily he has recovered the situation in recent months, but there is still some way to go for him to return to the top of the game, if he still has the ambition to do so of course. He had a little bit of luck to win the Scottish Open in December, with Cao throwing away a big lead in the final, but I'm sure he is more than happy just to have won a title again. He also got to the SF of the recent China Open in the best-of-11 format, which should restore some of the confidence and self-belief that had been sadly missing in recent times. An in-form Robertson is the complete player really, one of the best potters and break-builders in the game, with a solid tactical game and endless reserves of patience. He would easily be among the three or four main title contenders here, but unfortunately the chances of him finding his best form here are not high enough for my liking. Even with his minor resurgence in recent months, he still tends to follow every good tournament with a couple of bad ones, and landing in a tough part of the draw doesn't help him either. It could be a second World title for him, or it could be a 1st round exit, neither extreme would surprise me particularly.
Barry Hawkins is the opposite case, in the sense that I find him quite easy to predict, especially when it comes to the Crucible. He has reached the business end of this tournament every year since 2013, including four appearances in the one-table setup. He is doing what Matthew Stevens did in the past, consistently giving himself a decent chance of taking the title, but eventually he always runs of steam. He struggled pretty badly for most of this season, apparently set back by some personal problems, but it looks like he has found his form at the right time again, with runs to the final of the Welsh and the China Open in the last month and a half. He is not as prolific a winner as some of his fellow top8 players, but having beaten O'Sullivan and Selby at the Crucible in the recent past, there is no reason for him to fear anyone here. He is perfectly capable of holding his own against anyone in exchanges of one-visit snooker, and he plays good safety as well when he needs it. I think his downfall could be his tendency to get nervous under pressure though. Sometimes you can just see the panic in his face, especially after he fails to get over the winning line and the opponent starts coming back at him. I also have to question his stamina in a tournament as long as this one. I don't know whether the problem is more mental or physical, but for someone to lose in the SF three times in row with virtually a session to spare, something must be happening... Hawkins would not be my choice either, but I will not be surprised at all if he gets to the business end again.
Kyren Wilson could have a chance this year as well. He's still only won the one major title in his career so far, but this season he's played in three finals, and he can count himself unlucky to have come up against such strong opposition each time. He also got to the SF of the China Open a couple of weeks ago, pushing Selby all the way over two sessions. He has all the tools needed to compete at the Crucible. He plays the game with great heart, always giving his all even when he goes behind in matches and things are going against him. He doesn't lack bottle either, some of the stuff he's played under pressure this season was highly impressive. He is still quite young compared to most of the field here, and I always think it's easier for younger players to adapt when they have to play at different times of the day, or when things get scrappy and sessions take forever to finish. I might be wrong though, because the average age of champions has been steadily increasing in recent times, so perhaps experience is the more important factor. Well, Wilson does have some experience now, and he knows how to play at the Crucible as well, having got to the QF in the last two years. If there is a weakness in his game though, it surely has to be a slight lack of finesse at times. It looks impressive when balls are hit at pace and they go in, but a good soft touch around the black spot is equally important, and I think there is room for improvement for Wilson in that respect. If I had to call it now, I think that Wilson probably will be a World champion one day, but for now he is still an outside contender for me.
Moving on to the players who perhaps have a more realistic chance of winning this title...
Mark Allen is the reigning Masters champion, so he quite clearly needs to be considered very seriously. Whatever happens at the Crucible, this has already been the most successful season of Allen's career so far, and presumably the most lucrative in terms of earnings as well (I'm too lazy to actually check :smile. No one can ever say his Masters win was a fluke, since it included back-to-back wins over O'Sullivan and Higgins, and comfortable ones at that. He also got to the final of the International Championship in early November, surviving three deciders along the way. He beat Yan Bingtao 9-2 in that tournament, and the reason I mention that is because it was a great example of how Allen is capable of recognizing the key points in the match, and he always takes special care when there is an opportunity to steal a frame and really hurt his opponent. He is also a very good front-runner, with the killer instinct to run away with the match once he gets a couple of frames clear. He tends to fight when he goes behind as well, which makes him a very tricky opponent to face in matches over multiple sessions. On a more negative note, his consistency is a little questionable at times, and with the Masters not being a ranking event, Allen has just barely earned enough points in the other events to make it to the Crucible without having to qualify. He has struggled to put any results together since January, and the last shot he played before coming to Sheffield was that dreadful miss in the China Open that allowed Williams to clear up and beat him on the black in the deciding frame. He has also struggled at the Crucible in recent years, failing to reach the business end in any Championship since 2011. To be fair though, coming up against such an inspired Higgins in the 2nd round last year was a bit harsh. Could it be his year?
Judd Trump was the biggest disappointment of last year's Championship, when he lost to Rory McLeod in the opening round. He came to the Crucible on the back of a very solid season, probably as second favourite only behind Selby, and things are not much different this time. If I counted correctly, Trump has reached at least the SF in seven events this season, which puts him among the most consistent performers. The only problem is his inability to convert more of those semi-finals into titles. He's found various ways to lose, most frustratingly against Wilson and O'Sullivan in the SF of the Masters and the Players Championship respectively, both 6-5, and both mostly due to bad luck in his own opinion. He's managed to win just the one event, defending his European Masters title back in October, which is scarcely likely to satisfy his ambition in the game. Stephen Maguire famously said he wanted to win the World title before the age of 30, because the pressure would just grow and grow with each year after that. I think Trump is now getting to a similar point, still younger than the majority of his main rivals, but old enough to start wondering whether it's ever going to happen for him. He's played good snooker on three or four occasions at the Crucible in the past, he just needs a little more composure when playing other in-form players, or when coming up against some of his bogey players. He is one of the best potters and scorers in the game, and he can certainly play good safety when it's called for, he just struggles to make correct decisions at times in the heat of the moment. He also tends to get a little depressed when he suffers a setback, rather than shrugging it off the way Williams or Selby tend to do. I don't know... I don't feel like this is going to be Trump's year, but he certainly has the game to prove me wrong.
Ding Junhui finds himself in a very similar situation, but the difference is that he is on the wrong side of 30 now. I'm not really sure what to say about his season... Similar to the last one I suppose, a major ranking title in China, the final of another event, some early exits, and lots of events he never entered in the first place. Apart from O'Sullivan perhaps, I would say Ding is the player whose attitude can change the most dramatically between events. Sometimes he plays world-class snooker and just blows everyone away, sometimes he struggles but makes a good effort anyway, and then he has those weird events where he looks like he just can't be bothered at all. He definitely had an extended period like that this season between November and January, losing in the opening round of the International and the UK Championship, as well as the Masters. That's become a pattern for him in recent years, with the occasional exception of course. It's a different story at the Crucible though. He reached the business end of the tournament in five of his last seven appearances, and each time it took someone playing out of their skin to knock him out. As I said when the seedings were finalized, I think Ding landed in a pretty favourable quarter this year, and I can definitely see him getting to the SF again. He is the complete player when he finds his form and plays properly, and if I said Wilson's main weakness was a lack of finesse, Ding is probably the player he could learn the most from in that regard. His touch around the pink and black spot is superb, he is one of the best in the game at laying snookers, and those long pots at slow pace are just exquisite. He has a reputation for being fairly fragile in terms of mental strength, but it's worth pointing out that his record in deciders is among the best in the game, as is his win percentage in major finals. Make no mistake, if Ding is up for it this year, he is definitely one of the players to beat in my opinion.
Shaun Murphy could be another good bet this year. He only has six semi-finals this season compared to Trump's seven, but the difference is that he was able to convert five of those into finals, including of course the UK Championship. Unlike the players from the previous three paragraphs, Murphy doesn't have the pressure of chasing his first World title, having already won it at a young age back in 2005. His Crucible record has always been very respectable, and this year he has the bonus of coming here on the back of quite an impressive season, so the confidence should be high. Murphy is a player who probably relies on confidence more than most, as his shot-selection can be quite ambitious and even risky at times, so he needs the long balls to be going in. He has a good attitude for playing matches over multiple sessions. He rarely lets anything frustrate him to the point where it would negatively affect his game, and like Allen, he too is very good at recognizing important parts of sessions and matches. He's come back from seemingly impossible positions many times in the past, including at the Crucible in that famous QF against Stevens in 2007, so his will to win is not in question. A bigger problem is perhaps his lack of a strong B-game, he sometimes struggles to get involved in matches when his long-potting lets his down. He's also had some physical problems in recent weeks, which is probably the main reason he was whitewashed by Chris Wakelin in the opening round in Beijing. I hope that's all behind him now, because it would be a shame for him to end such a solid season on a low note at the Crucible.
John Higgins came very close to winning his fifth World title a year ago, being the victim of a typical Selby comeback in the final. He's added a couple more titles to his collection this season, both in the short format, while his results in the really big events have been decent at best. Despite his run to the World final last year, I think the short format is probably where he is slightly stronger these days, as he tends to lack the consistency and the concentration to play to a high standard for extended periods. He's beaten O'Sullivan on the big stage on a couple of occasions this season, proving he still has the self-belief to dominate matches against world-class opposition when he finds some form. He may not be as ridiculously good as he was back in his best days, particularly when it comes to the tactical side of the game, but even at 90% Higgins is still a class above most players who have ever played the game. His shot-selection is textbook, his snooker brain is as good as anyone's, his scoring can be relentless at times, and there isn't a single player here who has any sort of psychological edge over him. He is one of the few players who know they will probably win if they can play their best, which is a mentality that has served him very well over the years. The only problem is, some years he just doesn't have the form, and it usually results in an early exit. He's gone out in the first two rounds at the Crucible nine times in the last 14 years, which is not a great record compared to a few of his main rivals here. But once he finds himself at the business end, he usually becomes the man to beat. Personally, I think Higgins might not win another World title, but I've been wrong before. :smile:
I never thought Mark Williams would be such a strong contender again either, but this season he has really played some top-notch stuff. The German Masters was his first traditional ranking title in seven years, and he never really gave his last two opponents any chance. Of course he added the title in Belfast as well, and he showed decent form again in the China Open just recently. He was talking about some of the changes he had made to his technique when he won in Berlin, a topic I personally find uninteresting, but clearly it's been the main reason for his resurgence this season. The long pots have started going in again, so it seems impossible to keep him away from the table for extended periods at the moment. He's also cut down on the unforced errors somewhat, although they still happen a little too often for my liking. I think Williams has the same problems as Higgins really... He tends to start matches really well and get himself into the lead, but he doesn't quite have the concentration to keep that standard up, which tends to cost him in the long run. He has a reputation for being able to win a match of any type or style, doing whatever is needed in a particular situation, whether it's winning frames in one visit with a big break, or scrapping it out to get over the line. Personally, I think that reputation may not be entirely deserved anymore. Sometimes you can clearly see that he can't really be bothered to compete in certain frames or even matches, despite his best efforts in trying to hide it behind his laid-back personality. He hasn't exactly had the best of luck with the draw this year either. Robertson is probably the most difficult opponent any top8 player will have to face in the 2nd round, and next up would probably be O'Sullivan in the QF. For some reason Williams always insists on taking O'Sullivan on in a very open and attacking game at the Crucible, and the result is always the same, somewhere between a close and a heavy defeat. But then again, as I said earlier, Williams really is playing some top-notch snooker this season...
That just leaves the big favourites for this year's World title. I think there have always been at least three or four players in this group in every preview I've done in the past, but this year we have two players who are simply in a class of their own...
Let's start with Ronnie O'Sullivan. It seemed impossible for anyone to get anywhere near Selby in the rankings this season, but O'Sullivan managed to close most of the gap by the time we got to the China Open, winning five events that carried ranking points so far this season, most notably the UK Championship and the Shanghai Masters. He pretty much thrashed all of his opponents in those finals, despite playing against players who are all currently ranked among the top10 players in the world. If you add his two runs to the finals of invitational events to the mix, that makes it five titles from seven finals this season, which suddenly makes Murphy's and Trump's records look a lot less impressive, doesn't it? Unlike Higgins, O'Sullivan very rarely loses in the early rounds at the Crucible. He also has tremendous records against both Williams and Carter, and quite a good one against Robertson as well, so it would take a brave man to bet against him reaching at least the SF this year. He was asked recently about who would win in a match between himself now and himself from 10 or 15 years ago, and I thought he gave a fairly interesting answer. I don't remember the exact words, but it was along the lines of how he used to pot everything when he was younger, so he was probably capable of reaching a higher standard on his best days in the past, whereas now he described himself as a much better tournament player. I think I can only agree with that. Quite often recently he has shown the kind of patience and discipline he never used to have in the past, playing the right shots and fighting for every ball even when the frames have gone scrappy. There have also been matches where he went 2-0 or 3-0 behind against very strong players, but he never showed a hint of panic and just came back strongly to dominate the second half of the match. Combine that with a fairly reliable long game, one of the best snooker brains around and an unrivalled scoring ability, and you get someone who easily wins five or more titles in a season, especially if half of the top players are scared to even play him. Of course he is not going to magically resist decline forever, but at the moment it seems like O'Sullivan is in a good place mentally, and his game is strong as well. He got one of the nastiest 1st round draws imaginable, so anything could happen, but he's already beaten Maguire twice at the Crucible in very similar circumstances. If he can survive his opening match and play himself into the tournament, I think it will become increasingly difficult to stop him as the tournament goes on.
And it's only fitting that we conclude with Mark Selby, the defending champion. It's funny how quickly things can turn around in snooker. A few weeks ago we were all saying he was having a poor season by his standards, but winning the China Open has transformed it into quite a good season now. It means he comes to the Crucible having won two of the four biggest ranking events of the season, with the chance of making it three of the four if he can defend his World title as well. He is quite clearly the player to beat when it comes to the longer matches. He has won six of the last seven ranking events with best-of-11 or longer matches, which is a remarkable statistic in today's game. He has also won the World title three times in the last four years, coming close to playing perfect snooker on occasion, and also relying on his very strong B-game when needed. He sometimes has periods when he struggles to find his best form, but when he does find it, his game is pretty bulletproof. He pots as well as anyone, he wins frames in one visit, he probably has the best safety game in the world, and he just puts enormous pressure on all of his opponents by fighting for every ball no matter how far behind he is. He is the king of comebacks, as well as an excellent front-runner himself. He is also the king of midnight snooker, and I always know I will get an entertaining match when he is involved. I know he is not everyone's cup of tea, but if you had to pick someone to play a match to save your life, I'm sure Selby would be most people's choice. You just know he will do everything he possibly can to get over the winning line, and he probably won't crack when the pressure is really on either. It's funny, he too found himself in a similar position as Trump and Ding in the past, reaching 30 without having won the World title, and now we are talking about him possibly winning his fourth, and he is not even that old yet! Last year he said he probably still had another title in him, but that he wouldn't be disappointed if he never won it again. He ended up winning another one straight away, which just shows what can happen once the pressure is lifted. Two years ago he came to the Crucible with very little form, but somehow he was the last man standing at the end. It looked like the premise would be similar this year, but his win in the China Open means he now comes to this Championship as one of the big favourites again. Can anybody stop him?
I think that's just about all I have to say about the World Championship before it starts. :smile: Let's have your vote please. For the record, I will be voting for Selby, but I know I will enjoy it immensely whatever happens. :smile:
I know a lot of people have enjoyed these little previews, so I want to take this opportunity to thank everyone who has been kind enough to discuss snooker with me on this forum over the years. When I first joined in 2007, it was a struggle finding anyone to talk to about snooker outside of the internet, so this forum was instrumental in satisfying my snooker craving and basically keeping my interest up. There have been various changes to the site in that time, we've lost all the fun little contests we used to have, and it's been years since the sub-forums in the tournament section have been updated. People have come and gone, including a few who have sadly passed away way before their time, but the community as a whole has survived and is still as warm and welcoming as ever. It has been a great privilege to meet people from all over the world in one place and just talk about snooker with them, and I am happy if I've been able to give something back to the community just by posting my thoughts about matches and tournaments.
The reason I say all this is that, starting with next season, I will be making a conscious effort to take some things in my life a little more seriously than I have been doing lately, so I simply won't be able to justify dedicating so much time to discussing snooker. It started as a bit of fun ahead of the 2008 Northern Ireland Trophy, and 10 years and something like 91 previews later, it feels like the end of an era for me. I hope I can still find the time for the occasional long post ahead of tournaments, but it will not be a regular thing anymore, certainly not 10 or 12 times a year anyway. Until next time then...
It is the ninth and final major ranking event of the season, and the one we have all been waiting for. Before qualifying started, we were talking about there being five or six really dangerous players whom no one would want to draw in the first round this year, but quite a few of them have been filtered out now, most notably Yan Bingtao, Martin Gould and Liang Wenbo. The seeds, on the other hand, include a couple of players who have been struggling recently, and another couple who had to skip several events for different reasons. I think we might see some surprises in the 1st round, as nearly always, but as far as the main title contenders are concerned, I think the Championship is not as open this time as it was in some of the previous years.
For one final time, let's attempt to answer the question everyone is asking... Who is going to win the 2018 World Championship?
As usual, let's start at the other end, with a couple of players who really have no chance of winning this title. Chris Wakelin is one of the four Crucible debutants this year, and just playing at the Crucible is already the highlight of a fairly mediocre season for him. He's failed to reach the business end in any event this season, and he only has two ranking quarter-finals in his career so far, both in the short format. Similar story with Liam Highfield, another Crucible debutant. I remember hearing about him even before he turned professional, but he is 27 now and never made much of an impact on the main tour. He reached the QF of a ranking event for the first time this season, but even then it was only the short-format Indian Open. All in all, he has done little better than Wakelin this season, so it would be a big surprise if either of these two played a major role in this Championship.
Jimmy Robertson is a more familiar face at the Crucible. He made his debut in 2011 when he lost 10-1 to Selby, and I still remember how he annoyed me in one of the frames when he wouldn't play on for snookers, even though the balls were placed perfectly and he didn't need all that many. I know I always mention this with him, but I made a mental note at the time, thinking he wouldn't have much success in the game without more fighting spirit. Well, he hasn't really, but this season has still been his best ever, including a run to the QF of the German Masters in the traditional format. He hasn't won a match at any venue since February though. Stuart Carrington is another player who has done very little in the game, and no notable runs this season either, but he can be a dangerous player on his day. He made three centuries in a row against Liang at the Crucible last year, in taking a 5-2 lead, so I don't think he will struggle with the Crucible atmosphere. It's tough to see him getting on a run on wins though.
There are another couple of debutants I think we can safely rule out. Lyu Haotian is by far the youngest player in the field this year, at only 20 years of age. He was only 14 when he reached the QF of the International Championship in 2012, and at that time I thought he could potentially be a future World champion, but he didn't really produce anything special in the following years. He's made a bit of a breakthrough this season though, with a run to the SF of the Northern Ireland Open in November, and he's managed to climb up the rankings as well. It looks like he was scoring quite well in qualifying, so I look forward to seeing him play at the Crucible. I think he could potentially be a danger in the section he's in, but realistically he doesn't quite have a mature enough game to really challenge the top players. On a different note, I bet the commentators butcher his name really badly again (sorry PatBlock :smile
. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh would have been disappointed not to reach the Crucible last year, but this year it's a pleasant surprise to see him here. He has had a pretty dreadful season by his standards, dropping way down the rankings, so this is a chance for him to start going in the right direction again. As great a potter as he is though, he doesn't really have the all-round game to challenge for the title here. I will also mention Jamie Jones in this little group. He is not a debutant of course, but he is close to the other two in the rankings and has had similar results this season. He played wonderful snooker to reach the QF at the Crucible in 2012, and we've seen that kind of form from him on occasion since, but sadly not as often as he would have liked. It's nice to see him getting through the qualifiers, his whitewash of Liang being particularly impressive, but I'm expecting his run to end fairly early here. It's interesting that he drew Murphy in the 1st round though, the exact opponent he very surprisingly beat at the same stage in 2012. :smile:Of the older players, I think we can safely rule out Matthew Stevens as well. It's true that his record at the Crucible is superb, with eight runs to at least the QF in his first ten appearances here, but that's pretty much ancient history now. He hasn't played at the business end of any tournament, minor or major, in almost four years, so I definitely don't think we'll see any miracles here. The same goes for Robert Milkins, who took advantage of what I thought was a fairly weak section in qualifying. It's interesting that he drew Neil Robertson in the 1st round here, having played superbly to beat him 10-8 in the 1st round in 2013. He also beat Robertson on his way to the QF in Belfast, which was Milkins' only notable run this season. Unfortunately he followed it up by failing to win a match at any venue since new year. Could he beat Robertson again here? Well, even if he does, I can't see him getting past the likes of Williams or O'Sullivan in the bottom quarter...
To continue with the veterans, I would also rule out Joe Perry on this occasion. He has had notable results in all of the biggest events in snooker in the past, including runs to the SF of the World, the UK and the International Championship, and of course the final of the Masters last season, so his ability to play on the big stage is not in question. His season also hasn't been too bad, though probably not quite as successful as he would have liked. I think he is definitely on the list of players Selby didn't want to draw in the opening round, especially since the matches are still relatively short at this stage. That said, Perry has never won any ranking event outside of the PTC series, so it's tough to see him starting with the World title at the age of 43. Graeme Dott won the World title when he was 29 back in 2006, then went on to win the China Open the following season, but since then he has not really been a strong contender in the major events. I'm sure some people will remember that I didn't really give him much of a chance against Carter in the 1st round last year, but he played alright to win 10-7, so I will definitely not be making the same mistake again here. Especially as the balance of power is completely different this year, with Dott having reached his first major final in almost eight years at the German Masters. He's played the World final on three occasions in the past, so he definitely has the game and the mental strength to get through the rounds at the Crucible, but I don't think he has the required consistency anymore.
It's nice to see Xiao Guodong playing well again. It was a travesty for him to drop so far down the rankings, because he really is a very solid player once he finds a bit of form. He's reached three ranking quarter-finals this season, some bigger than others, and he could have perhaps gone even further on a couple of occasions, if only he had a little more luck and composure at crucial times. I think the longer matches definitely suit him, as he sometimes takes a while to find his scoring rhythm. He could definitely be a danger to many players here, but no matter how well he plays, I don't think he currently has enough firepower to go all the way in an event of this stature. The same probably goes for Jack Lisowski, though "firepower" is the one thing he has plenty of, while the other elements of his game are still a little lacking. Whatever happens at the Crucible, this has been by far the best season of Lisowski's career so far, with runs to the business end of two major tournaments in China, as well as quite a few notable victories against top players on the big stage. I've criticised him quite a lot in the past for his lack of composure under pressure and his suspect tactical game, and while that criticism may still be justified to a large extent, there is no doubt he has made a large step forward in his game this season. Could he play a big part at the Crucible as well? Well, he lost quite heavily to Hawkins in his only previous appearance here, but I expect him to do much better this time. As for actually having a crack at the World title, I think more improvement is needed, so it will still have to wait a year or two.
There are a couple of seeds I am not sure about this year. Marco Fu is the big mystery really, having missed all of the events after new year, and his results prior to that were quite poor by his standards as well. There is no doubt Fu has the class to compete with anyone in the game. The fact that he is still comfortably in the top16 even after such a long absence shows how strong he was before all of this, and it takes more than just a few months away from the game for someone to forget how to play good snooker. On the other hand, coming to a big tournament with no match practice can be difficult, but we've seen players have success in similar circumstances in the past. Fu has always struggled with inconsistency though, so I have my doubts about his chances here. Another seed I am unsure about is Ali Carter, who has shown very little form since his two decent runs in China in the first part of the season. As I've said on a couple of occasions this season, I am a little disappointed by Carter's negative attitude and lack of fight when things are not going his way. For someone who has had so many setbacks in life and dealt with them admirably, he could do with bringing some of that fighting spirit to the snooker table. You just can't win the World title if you give up in the middle of matches, like Carter did against Gould in Daqing this season. He played superbly to reach two finals at the Crucible in the past, but I would be pleasantly surprised if he came anywhere near a third one this year. :smile: I am also reluctant to put Anthony McGill among the genuine contenders here, as he has not really proven himself on the big stage yet. Well, that's a little unfair perhaps, considering how well he played in his wins over Selby and Murphy at the Crucible in recent years, but it's true that most of his best results have come in the short format, including a string of good runs in the first part of this season. But this is the proper stuff here, and McGill has never been beyond the quarter-finals in any event with matches of at least medium length, which is a somewhat unusual statistic for a top16 player. I'm sure he will put this right at some point in the near future, but for now, he is not among the top contenders for me.
We also have a couple of strong qualifiers who probably don't make the cut either. Stephen Maguire stands out immediately, one of the best players in the world for a number of years during his prime, but not so much these days. The Crucible was a bit of nightmare for him in the 2013-2016 period, with four 1st round defeats in a row, three of them in deciding frames. He was a seeded player in all of those, and he talked about not being able to get himself up for those matches for some reason. Last year he had to go through the qualifiers for the first time since 2005, and he came to the Crucible match sharp and thrashed his first two opponents, looking a lot more like his old self. Could something similar happen this time? He is certainly playing better this season than in some of the previous ones, the highlight being his run to the SF of the UK Championship, and of course he is still young enough to find the kind of form he had in the past. That said, he drew O'Sullivan in the 1st round here, for the third time in his career I think, so there absolutely won't be any time for him to play himself into the tournament. He's made decent efforts against O'Sullivan in two semi-finals this season, but ultimately he was a couple of frames short on both occasions, and I fear that might happen here as well. I will also mention Ricky Walden in this group. In terms of recent results, there is no real case to be made for him being a genuine contender here, but I am still a little reluctant to rule him out completely. We know what a great player he was not too long ago, and I think he is way too young to be dismissed here. He's won three major ranking events in the past, which may not sound like a lot, but all of them were proper events with matches of medium length, unlike some of the stuff that sadly carries ranking status these days. The highlight of his career so far has been winning the 2014 International Championship in the best-of-11 format, and if you look through all the events with a similar format played in the last ten years or so, you won't find any outsiders among the winners. Walden really did play world-class snooker in the events he won, and I hope he can rediscover some of that form at some point in the future. He made four centuries in his final qualifying round for this event, so the signs are not too bad...
That leaves the 14 players who, in my opinion, have at least an outside chance of winning this title.
Ryan Day is the only qualifier I would include in this group. As much as I dislike the fact that the line between short-format crap and proper snooker has been firmly erased in most people's eyes now, and despite not giving Day as much credit for his "ranking" titles as some of the snooker commentators and journalists do, it's hard to argue with his results this season. Winning three tournaments in a season is impressive, even if they are relatively minor ones. And it's not as if he only played well in the short matches, he also reached the SF of the UK Championship this season, showing great composure to win three deciders back to back. I think it's fair to say that mental strength was never considered to be his strong point in the past, but this season he seems to have found some self-belief to play his best snooker when the pressure is on, and he doesn't seem to panic if he goes a few frames behind either. Obviously he has always been a very strong potter and break-builder, and while his safety game was considered to be below average when he was at the top of his game in the 2008-2010 period, I think he now has the experience to make correct decisions in most situations, so he doesn't really have a major weakness in his game. I think McGill is a favourable 1st round draw for him as well. Day has reached the QF at the Crucible on three occasions in the past, can he go even further this year?
Luca Brecel would not be my pick for the title here, but you can't overlook someone who has won a major tournament this season. It's true that it was the first proper event of the season, played during the summer when quite a few players tend to be some way off their best form, and it didn't really take anything brilliant from Brecel to win it, but it still showed he had the game and the nerve to take major titles when given the opportunity. The following couple of months suggested he would become a solid top16 player for the foreseeable future, but unfortunately he has struggled to put any results together since new year. Last year he lost from a long way in front against Fu in the opening round, which must have been hard to take, but it seems to have made him a better player this season. His main strength is being able to score heavily and very quickly if he is allowed to get into his rhythm, whereas his decision-making and tactical awareness are a little suspect. He also tends to play a little too casually at times, rushing through some of his shots without giving them proper consideration, especially when matches go scrappy. I commented on this during his match against Cao Yupeng at the recent China Open. It went very scrappy after the interval, with lots of mistakes from both players, but it was clear that Cao was giving it his very best effort, whereas Brecel never quite seems to give me that impression. As I said, he is not my first choice here, but I can see why some people would include him on their list of contenders.
It's difficult to predict what Stuart Bingham can do this year. He missed a big part of the season with several of the biggest events, so it's tough to compare his results with those of the other top players. He reached a ranking final just before his suspension, and he played alright in the recent China Open to reach the QF, but that's about all one can say about his season. We know he has the class to win this title, having won at the Crucible before in 2015, in one of the best Championships in recent memory in terms of the standard of play. You can never quite tell with him... Sometimes he will struggle for no particular reason, but the next time you see him he plays amazing stuff, winning frame after frame in a single visit. He's never been a flashy player or a particularly outstanding shot maker, but that ability to score relentlessly in big matches has been the main reason for his success in recent years, and there is no reason to think he can't produce it again this year. You can see that some players who are expected to win the WC but haven't done so yet are under a lot of pressure when we get to the Crucible, Ding and Trump for example, but there is none of that with Bingham. No one really expected him to ever win a World title, including himself in all likelihood, so he can relax in the knowledge that he has already won the biggest prize in snooker, and everything else is just a bonus now.
That kind of attitude is not always helpful though, as Neil Robertson discovered after he won everything there is to win in snooker. Like Mark Williams did in 2004, I think Robertson took his foot off the gas completely after winning the 2015 UK title, which caused him to drop down the rankings and even miss out on the Masters this year. Luckily he has recovered the situation in recent months, but there is still some way to go for him to return to the top of the game, if he still has the ambition to do so of course. He had a little bit of luck to win the Scottish Open in December, with Cao throwing away a big lead in the final, but I'm sure he is more than happy just to have won a title again. He also got to the SF of the recent China Open in the best-of-11 format, which should restore some of the confidence and self-belief that had been sadly missing in recent times. An in-form Robertson is the complete player really, one of the best potters and break-builders in the game, with a solid tactical game and endless reserves of patience. He would easily be among the three or four main title contenders here, but unfortunately the chances of him finding his best form here are not high enough for my liking. Even with his minor resurgence in recent months, he still tends to follow every good tournament with a couple of bad ones, and landing in a tough part of the draw doesn't help him either. It could be a second World title for him, or it could be a 1st round exit, neither extreme would surprise me particularly.
Barry Hawkins is the opposite case, in the sense that I find him quite easy to predict, especially when it comes to the Crucible. He has reached the business end of this tournament every year since 2013, including four appearances in the one-table setup. He is doing what Matthew Stevens did in the past, consistently giving himself a decent chance of taking the title, but eventually he always runs of steam. He struggled pretty badly for most of this season, apparently set back by some personal problems, but it looks like he has found his form at the right time again, with runs to the final of the Welsh and the China Open in the last month and a half. He is not as prolific a winner as some of his fellow top8 players, but having beaten O'Sullivan and Selby at the Crucible in the recent past, there is no reason for him to fear anyone here. He is perfectly capable of holding his own against anyone in exchanges of one-visit snooker, and he plays good safety as well when he needs it. I think his downfall could be his tendency to get nervous under pressure though. Sometimes you can just see the panic in his face, especially after he fails to get over the winning line and the opponent starts coming back at him. I also have to question his stamina in a tournament as long as this one. I don't know whether the problem is more mental or physical, but for someone to lose in the SF three times in row with virtually a session to spare, something must be happening... Hawkins would not be my choice either, but I will not be surprised at all if he gets to the business end again.
Kyren Wilson could have a chance this year as well. He's still only won the one major title in his career so far, but this season he's played in three finals, and he can count himself unlucky to have come up against such strong opposition each time. He also got to the SF of the China Open a couple of weeks ago, pushing Selby all the way over two sessions. He has all the tools needed to compete at the Crucible. He plays the game with great heart, always giving his all even when he goes behind in matches and things are going against him. He doesn't lack bottle either, some of the stuff he's played under pressure this season was highly impressive. He is still quite young compared to most of the field here, and I always think it's easier for younger players to adapt when they have to play at different times of the day, or when things get scrappy and sessions take forever to finish. I might be wrong though, because the average age of champions has been steadily increasing in recent times, so perhaps experience is the more important factor. Well, Wilson does have some experience now, and he knows how to play at the Crucible as well, having got to the QF in the last two years. If there is a weakness in his game though, it surely has to be a slight lack of finesse at times. It looks impressive when balls are hit at pace and they go in, but a good soft touch around the black spot is equally important, and I think there is room for improvement for Wilson in that respect. If I had to call it now, I think that Wilson probably will be a World champion one day, but for now he is still an outside contender for me.
Moving on to the players who perhaps have a more realistic chance of winning this title...
Mark Allen is the reigning Masters champion, so he quite clearly needs to be considered very seriously. Whatever happens at the Crucible, this has already been the most successful season of Allen's career so far, and presumably the most lucrative in terms of earnings as well (I'm too lazy to actually check :smile
. No one can ever say his Masters win was a fluke, since it included back-to-back wins over O'Sullivan and Higgins, and comfortable ones at that. He also got to the final of the International Championship in early November, surviving three deciders along the way. He beat Yan Bingtao 9-2 in that tournament, and the reason I mention that is because it was a great example of how Allen is capable of recognizing the key points in the match, and he always takes special care when there is an opportunity to steal a frame and really hurt his opponent. He is also a very good front-runner, with the killer instinct to run away with the match once he gets a couple of frames clear. He tends to fight when he goes behind as well, which makes him a very tricky opponent to face in matches over multiple sessions. On a more negative note, his consistency is a little questionable at times, and with the Masters not being a ranking event, Allen has just barely earned enough points in the other events to make it to the Crucible without having to qualify. He has struggled to put any results together since January, and the last shot he played before coming to Sheffield was that dreadful miss in the China Open that allowed Williams to clear up and beat him on the black in the deciding frame. He has also struggled at the Crucible in recent years, failing to reach the business end in any Championship since 2011. To be fair though, coming up against such an inspired Higgins in the 2nd round last year was a bit harsh. Could it be his year?Judd Trump was the biggest disappointment of last year's Championship, when he lost to Rory McLeod in the opening round. He came to the Crucible on the back of a very solid season, probably as second favourite only behind Selby, and things are not much different this time. If I counted correctly, Trump has reached at least the SF in seven events this season, which puts him among the most consistent performers. The only problem is his inability to convert more of those semi-finals into titles. He's found various ways to lose, most frustratingly against Wilson and O'Sullivan in the SF of the Masters and the Players Championship respectively, both 6-5, and both mostly due to bad luck in his own opinion. He's managed to win just the one event, defending his European Masters title back in October, which is scarcely likely to satisfy his ambition in the game. Stephen Maguire famously said he wanted to win the World title before the age of 30, because the pressure would just grow and grow with each year after that. I think Trump is now getting to a similar point, still younger than the majority of his main rivals, but old enough to start wondering whether it's ever going to happen for him. He's played good snooker on three or four occasions at the Crucible in the past, he just needs a little more composure when playing other in-form players, or when coming up against some of his bogey players. He is one of the best potters and scorers in the game, and he can certainly play good safety when it's called for, he just struggles to make correct decisions at times in the heat of the moment. He also tends to get a little depressed when he suffers a setback, rather than shrugging it off the way Williams or Selby tend to do. I don't know... I don't feel like this is going to be Trump's year, but he certainly has the game to prove me wrong.
Ding Junhui finds himself in a very similar situation, but the difference is that he is on the wrong side of 30 now. I'm not really sure what to say about his season... Similar to the last one I suppose, a major ranking title in China, the final of another event, some early exits, and lots of events he never entered in the first place. Apart from O'Sullivan perhaps, I would say Ding is the player whose attitude can change the most dramatically between events. Sometimes he plays world-class snooker and just blows everyone away, sometimes he struggles but makes a good effort anyway, and then he has those weird events where he looks like he just can't be bothered at all. He definitely had an extended period like that this season between November and January, losing in the opening round of the International and the UK Championship, as well as the Masters. That's become a pattern for him in recent years, with the occasional exception of course. It's a different story at the Crucible though. He reached the business end of the tournament in five of his last seven appearances, and each time it took someone playing out of their skin to knock him out. As I said when the seedings were finalized, I think Ding landed in a pretty favourable quarter this year, and I can definitely see him getting to the SF again. He is the complete player when he finds his form and plays properly, and if I said Wilson's main weakness was a lack of finesse, Ding is probably the player he could learn the most from in that regard. His touch around the pink and black spot is superb, he is one of the best in the game at laying snookers, and those long pots at slow pace are just exquisite. He has a reputation for being fairly fragile in terms of mental strength, but it's worth pointing out that his record in deciders is among the best in the game, as is his win percentage in major finals. Make no mistake, if Ding is up for it this year, he is definitely one of the players to beat in my opinion.
Shaun Murphy could be another good bet this year. He only has six semi-finals this season compared to Trump's seven, but the difference is that he was able to convert five of those into finals, including of course the UK Championship. Unlike the players from the previous three paragraphs, Murphy doesn't have the pressure of chasing his first World title, having already won it at a young age back in 2005. His Crucible record has always been very respectable, and this year he has the bonus of coming here on the back of quite an impressive season, so the confidence should be high. Murphy is a player who probably relies on confidence more than most, as his shot-selection can be quite ambitious and even risky at times, so he needs the long balls to be going in. He has a good attitude for playing matches over multiple sessions. He rarely lets anything frustrate him to the point where it would negatively affect his game, and like Allen, he too is very good at recognizing important parts of sessions and matches. He's come back from seemingly impossible positions many times in the past, including at the Crucible in that famous QF against Stevens in 2007, so his will to win is not in question. A bigger problem is perhaps his lack of a strong B-game, he sometimes struggles to get involved in matches when his long-potting lets his down. He's also had some physical problems in recent weeks, which is probably the main reason he was whitewashed by Chris Wakelin in the opening round in Beijing. I hope that's all behind him now, because it would be a shame for him to end such a solid season on a low note at the Crucible.
John Higgins came very close to winning his fifth World title a year ago, being the victim of a typical Selby comeback in the final. He's added a couple more titles to his collection this season, both in the short format, while his results in the really big events have been decent at best. Despite his run to the World final last year, I think the short format is probably where he is slightly stronger these days, as he tends to lack the consistency and the concentration to play to a high standard for extended periods. He's beaten O'Sullivan on the big stage on a couple of occasions this season, proving he still has the self-belief to dominate matches against world-class opposition when he finds some form. He may not be as ridiculously good as he was back in his best days, particularly when it comes to the tactical side of the game, but even at 90% Higgins is still a class above most players who have ever played the game. His shot-selection is textbook, his snooker brain is as good as anyone's, his scoring can be relentless at times, and there isn't a single player here who has any sort of psychological edge over him. He is one of the few players who know they will probably win if they can play their best, which is a mentality that has served him very well over the years. The only problem is, some years he just doesn't have the form, and it usually results in an early exit. He's gone out in the first two rounds at the Crucible nine times in the last 14 years, which is not a great record compared to a few of his main rivals here. But once he finds himself at the business end, he usually becomes the man to beat. Personally, I think Higgins might not win another World title, but I've been wrong before. :smile:
I never thought Mark Williams would be such a strong contender again either, but this season he has really played some top-notch stuff. The German Masters was his first traditional ranking title in seven years, and he never really gave his last two opponents any chance. Of course he added the title in Belfast as well, and he showed decent form again in the China Open just recently. He was talking about some of the changes he had made to his technique when he won in Berlin, a topic I personally find uninteresting, but clearly it's been the main reason for his resurgence this season. The long pots have started going in again, so it seems impossible to keep him away from the table for extended periods at the moment. He's also cut down on the unforced errors somewhat, although they still happen a little too often for my liking. I think Williams has the same problems as Higgins really... He tends to start matches really well and get himself into the lead, but he doesn't quite have the concentration to keep that standard up, which tends to cost him in the long run. He has a reputation for being able to win a match of any type or style, doing whatever is needed in a particular situation, whether it's winning frames in one visit with a big break, or scrapping it out to get over the line. Personally, I think that reputation may not be entirely deserved anymore. Sometimes you can clearly see that he can't really be bothered to compete in certain frames or even matches, despite his best efforts in trying to hide it behind his laid-back personality. He hasn't exactly had the best of luck with the draw this year either. Robertson is probably the most difficult opponent any top8 player will have to face in the 2nd round, and next up would probably be O'Sullivan in the QF. For some reason Williams always insists on taking O'Sullivan on in a very open and attacking game at the Crucible, and the result is always the same, somewhere between a close and a heavy defeat. But then again, as I said earlier, Williams really is playing some top-notch snooker this season...
That just leaves the big favourites for this year's World title. I think there have always been at least three or four players in this group in every preview I've done in the past, but this year we have two players who are simply in a class of their own...
Let's start with Ronnie O'Sullivan. It seemed impossible for anyone to get anywhere near Selby in the rankings this season, but O'Sullivan managed to close most of the gap by the time we got to the China Open, winning five events that carried ranking points so far this season, most notably the UK Championship and the Shanghai Masters. He pretty much thrashed all of his opponents in those finals, despite playing against players who are all currently ranked among the top10 players in the world. If you add his two runs to the finals of invitational events to the mix, that makes it five titles from seven finals this season, which suddenly makes Murphy's and Trump's records look a lot less impressive, doesn't it? Unlike Higgins, O'Sullivan very rarely loses in the early rounds at the Crucible. He also has tremendous records against both Williams and Carter, and quite a good one against Robertson as well, so it would take a brave man to bet against him reaching at least the SF this year. He was asked recently about who would win in a match between himself now and himself from 10 or 15 years ago, and I thought he gave a fairly interesting answer. I don't remember the exact words, but it was along the lines of how he used to pot everything when he was younger, so he was probably capable of reaching a higher standard on his best days in the past, whereas now he described himself as a much better tournament player. I think I can only agree with that. Quite often recently he has shown the kind of patience and discipline he never used to have in the past, playing the right shots and fighting for every ball even when the frames have gone scrappy. There have also been matches where he went 2-0 or 3-0 behind against very strong players, but he never showed a hint of panic and just came back strongly to dominate the second half of the match. Combine that with a fairly reliable long game, one of the best snooker brains around and an unrivalled scoring ability, and you get someone who easily wins five or more titles in a season, especially if half of the top players are scared to even play him. Of course he is not going to magically resist decline forever, but at the moment it seems like O'Sullivan is in a good place mentally, and his game is strong as well. He got one of the nastiest 1st round draws imaginable, so anything could happen, but he's already beaten Maguire twice at the Crucible in very similar circumstances. If he can survive his opening match and play himself into the tournament, I think it will become increasingly difficult to stop him as the tournament goes on.
And it's only fitting that we conclude with Mark Selby, the defending champion. It's funny how quickly things can turn around in snooker. A few weeks ago we were all saying he was having a poor season by his standards, but winning the China Open has transformed it into quite a good season now. It means he comes to the Crucible having won two of the four biggest ranking events of the season, with the chance of making it three of the four if he can defend his World title as well. He is quite clearly the player to beat when it comes to the longer matches. He has won six of the last seven ranking events with best-of-11 or longer matches, which is a remarkable statistic in today's game. He has also won the World title three times in the last four years, coming close to playing perfect snooker on occasion, and also relying on his very strong B-game when needed. He sometimes has periods when he struggles to find his best form, but when he does find it, his game is pretty bulletproof. He pots as well as anyone, he wins frames in one visit, he probably has the best safety game in the world, and he just puts enormous pressure on all of his opponents by fighting for every ball no matter how far behind he is. He is the king of comebacks, as well as an excellent front-runner himself. He is also the king of midnight snooker, and I always know I will get an entertaining match when he is involved. I know he is not everyone's cup of tea, but if you had to pick someone to play a match to save your life, I'm sure Selby would be most people's choice. You just know he will do everything he possibly can to get over the winning line, and he probably won't crack when the pressure is really on either. It's funny, he too found himself in a similar position as Trump and Ding in the past, reaching 30 without having won the World title, and now we are talking about him possibly winning his fourth, and he is not even that old yet! Last year he said he probably still had another title in him, but that he wouldn't be disappointed if he never won it again. He ended up winning another one straight away, which just shows what can happen once the pressure is lifted. Two years ago he came to the Crucible with very little form, but somehow he was the last man standing at the end. It looked like the premise would be similar this year, but his win in the China Open means he now comes to this Championship as one of the big favourites again. Can anybody stop him?
I think that's just about all I have to say about the World Championship before it starts. :smile: Let's have your vote please. For the record, I will be voting for Selby, but I know I will enjoy it immensely whatever happens. :smile:
I know a lot of people have enjoyed these little previews, so I want to take this opportunity to thank everyone who has been kind enough to discuss snooker with me on this forum over the years. When I first joined in 2007, it was a struggle finding anyone to talk to about snooker outside of the internet, so this forum was instrumental in satisfying my snooker craving and basically keeping my interest up. There have been various changes to the site in that time, we've lost all the fun little contests we used to have, and it's been years since the sub-forums in the tournament section have been updated. People have come and gone, including a few who have sadly passed away way before their time, but the community as a whole has survived and is still as warm and welcoming as ever. It has been a great privilege to meet people from all over the world in one place and just talk about snooker with them, and I am happy if I've been able to give something back to the community just by posting my thoughts about matches and tournaments.
The reason I say all this is that, starting with next season, I will be making a conscious effort to take some things in my life a little more seriously than I have been doing lately, so I simply won't be able to justify dedicating so much time to discussing snooker. It started as a bit of fun ahead of the 2008 Northern Ireland Trophy, and 10 years and something like 91 previews later, it feels like the end of an era for me. I hope I can still find the time for the occasional long post ahead of tournaments, but it will not be a regular thing anymore, certainly not 10 or 12 times a year anyway. Until next time then...
(dont think you'll be able to help yourself haha)
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