I think I will skip my usual complaints about the best-of-7 format, I'm sure everyone knows how crap I think it is by now. :smile:
That having been said, let's see what the draw looks like at this stage. There are still 64 players left in the tournament, so just a quick look at who might get through each quarter...
Quarter 1:
Stephen Maguire v. Sam Baird
Gerard Greene v. Andrew Pagett
Tom Ford v. James Wattana
Mark Davis v. Joel Walker
David Gilbert v. Scott Donaldson
Andrew Higginson v. Jimmy Robertson
Ben Woollaston v. Alfie Burden
Ding Junhui v. Jamie Cope
Stephen Maguire is the defending champion, and he finds himself in a relatively weak quarter, with no lower-ranked players who would be considered a tricky draw at this point in time. Mark Davis is the only high-ranked player in his way before the quarter-finals. Davis has had a pretty consistent season so far, with quite a few decent runs in the major events, but he hasn't really put himself in a position to challenge for any title. He lost to Xiao Guodong in the QF of the Shanghai Masters, when he was by far the highest-ranked player still left in his half of the draw. He had another chance for a good result in the International Championship, but played a poor match against Liang Wenbo in the last16. The most recent of these frustrating defeats came in the German Masters a couple of weeks ago, when he lost to Rod Lawler in the QF. So I suspect he feels like the season could have gone better, but of course it's not over yet, and he still remains a tough player to beat, especially with a favourable draw like here. He had two good wins over Maguire in China a couple of seasons ago, so he definitely won't be afraid of him, but he did lose to him in India this season, in the best-of-7 format. It's tough to see who could surprise us here, but I guess Tom Ford is the next in line. We're not seeing as much of him as we used to this season, except for a QF appearance in Australia, but he is now at an age when he should be playing his best snooker. Gerard Greene also hasn't done much in the major events in recent years, but he did reach a PTC final in Germany this season, so he shouldn't be underestimated either. Sam Baird also had a good run in a PTC, reaching a SF just recently in Poland. But of course the main question here is how Maguire is going to play himself. The highlight of his season so far has been a SF appearance at the Masters, after his first major win over Neil Robertson in quite some time, but unfortunately all his weaknesses were very apparent against O'Sullivan. Maguire also lost earlier than expected in Germany, against Liang Wenbo in the last32. If he is to challenge for the title here, he will need the same mental approach as last year, with none of that rage after every little setback. The time for banging the table is after you pot match ball in the final. :wink:
As we move to the second section of this quarter, Ding Junhui stands out as the big name. Even more so than Maguire, because Robert Milkins, who would have been his toughest opponent, is already out. I guess Ding could have faced an easier opponent than Jamie Cope at this stage. While Cope is nowhere near the player who was once in the top16, he is still fairly young, so there is no reason why he can't find his form again. He has a positive record over Ding, including two wins in the Welsh Open, back when it was still a best-of-9 event. They haven't met in a few years, but Ding did win the last time they've played. Also here is Andrew Higginson, a former finalist of this event, still looking for another run like that one. Ben Woollaston could also be dangerous, one of the not so many players to beat O'Sullivan this season. Scott Donaldson was the player who took out Milkins here, so it looks like he is back to the form that saw him reach the business end of a couple of tournaments at the start of the season, but it won't be easy against David Gilbert. It's going to be tough to knock Ding out here, but if it does somehow happen, it leaves this section wide open. But of course this is not the first time this season that Ding comes to an event as the man to beat, having won the German Masters a couple of weeks ago. He has already broken the "curse" of the winner of the previous major event twice this season, so I'm not really expecting him to have many bad tournaments at this point. It's amazing that the "bad" tournaments for him this season have been the UK Championship, where he lost to Ricky Walden in the last16, and the Masters, where he lost his opening match to Shaun Murphy. It just shows you how successful he has been in other events, that these fairly minor setbacks can stand out at all. He didn't have it easy in the previous round, Gary Wilson made two big breaks against him, but Ding made four good breaks himself, so it looks like he is up for another run...
Quarter 2:
Stuart Bingham v. Thepchaiya Un-Nooh
Michael Holt v. Peter Lines
Matthew Stevens v. Ian Burns
Joe Perry v. Liu Chuang
Mark Allen v. Noppon Saengkham
Allister Carter v. Mike Dunn
Dominic Dale v. Dechawat Poomjaeng
Mark Selby v. Dave Harold
The second quarter has a few more big names... A couple of veterans compete for the first QF spot. Stuart Bingham is the highest seed, suffering a minor form crisis now, after his purple patch just before the new year. He beat Ding and Robertson to reach the final here last year, playing some great snooker. He started well again this year, winning his first match 4-0 with a couple of high breaks, but his next opponent, Thepchaiya Un-Nooh, also seems to be playing well now, after a somewhat shaky start to the season. Bingham could play Peter Lines in the next round, the player who beat him recently in the German Masters. More likely he will play Michael Holt, and that could be a tricky one, because Holt is arguably enjoying his best-ever season, with his first appearance in the SF of a major event in Shanghai, and he added another QF in Germany a couple of weeks ago, although he did have quite a favourable draw there. Matthew Stevens was less successful in Germany, losing once again from a winning position against Murphy in the last32. His best run this season has come in the very first major event, the Wuxi Classic in June, so it's a long time since he last challenged for a title. Well, this is the part of the season he played strongly in a year ago, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him come good again. Joe Perry? One of the most consistent players of the season so far. I keep expecting his form to drop, but he has just played another strong tournament in Germany, losing to Ding in the QF. He did lose in the qualifiers for the China Open though, so perhaps his run is coming to an end. But for now, he is one of the men to beat in this quarter.
Mark Selby has a tough route to the quarter-finals. He fought hard to reach the final of the UK Championship and the Masters again, but he looked out of sorts in Germany, losing to Kurt Maflin in the last32. This format doesn't suit him all that well, so I definitely think he is vulnerable here. The rankings suggest his toughest opponent could be Mark Allen. It's been a pretty poor season for Allen so far, but of course the World Open is still to come. :smile: He lost in the 1st round in Germany, and he could have lost in the 1st round here as well, but came through from 3-0 down. For some reason players rarely play poorly after a comeback like that, so Allen could be dangerous. Ali Carter is a bit of a mystery, struggling with his form for most of the season, but it's tough to say how much of that is down to his health problems in general. This was the first ranking event he ever won, and he followed it up with another final, so it clearly suits him. He has played Allen quite a bit in the short-format stuff, but in major ranking snooker this is a very uncommon pairing, so it would be interesting to see. Dominic Dale could be another danger, somewhat unlucky to end up in this very strong section. He followed up his shoot-out win with a decent performance in Germany, losing to Ding in the last16. I don't think he's ever played particularly well in his home event, but maybe this is the year. He plays Dechawat Poomjaeng next, quite a tricky opponent, as Carter found out in the German Masters recently. Quite a few contenders for the QF spot then, and surely at least one of them is bound to play well. Otherwise Selby is favourite to scrape through. We should see some interesting matches here in any case, Selby-Allen and Selby-Carter in particular always seem to be pretty good.
Quarter 3:
Neil Robertson v. Rory McLeod
Mark Williams v. Tian Pengfei
Graeme Dott v. Jamie Jones
Marco Fu v. Kurt Maflin
Shaun Murphy v. Craig Steadman
Liang Wenbo v. Fergal O'Brien
Martin Gould v. Jack Lisowski
Barry Hawkins v. Cao Yupeng
By far the toughest quarter of the draw, in my opinion. Neil Robertson and Marco Fu were in the same section in the German Masters as well, but ultimately failed to meet, even though I said I couldn't see anyone else going through on that occasion. Well, it's much tougher this time, at least on paper. Robertson lost to Tian Pengfei in Germany, probably his only really surprising defeat all season, and he could play him again here. I think he is the kind of character who would want to meet him again, just to settle the score. Robertson played well in the 1st round here, and was pretty angry with himself for failing to make a century. I'm not sure whether that kind of attitude is good or bad for him, but it shows he is still hungry for more achievements, and his great consistency over the last year and a half surely makes him the man to beat in this quarter. He could play Mark Williams early on as well, potentially a tough opponent, but quite possibly an easy one at this point in time. Williams hasn't had a good run in any major event this season, and he has only played well in single matches, never stringing a few together. He also hasn't enjoyed this tournament over the last decade, even though the home crowd is always looking for him to do well. On top of that, his record against Robertson is quite poor. Graeme Dott will be looking for his first major run since the International Championship, where he showed he is still competitive on the big stage. Shorter matches here though, and I think Dott could be one of the players who suffer the most because of that. He plays Jamie Jones next, a former WC quarter-finalist struggling badly this season, but maybe Jones can take advantage of playing at home here. Kurt Maflin also deserves a mention, great win over Selby in the German Masters, to reach the last16. It's amazing, this little section contains two of only three players who have won a major ranking title this season. Fu was the winner in Australia, where he beat Robertson in the final, so a repeat of that would be quite good. They've played in the QF of this tournament in 2009, a remarkable match that started past midnight, Fu failing to cope with the late hour on that occasion. He doesn't play too many bad tournaments these days. The UK Championship was one, the German Masters another, but it's still pretty rare compared to how he used to be. Looking forward to seeing how this section plays out... :smile:
Some strong players in the other section as well, to make it a very strong quarter all around. Shaun Murphy has been coming back to form recently, first reaching the SF of the Masters, then adding a PTC title in Poland, his first in a couple of years. He was outclassed by Trump in Germany, and he looked a bit suspect in the qualifiers for the China Open as well, but ultimately came through. He played well against David Morris in the 1st round here, but his post-match comments sound quite patronizing to me, especially considering Morris' runs in the major events this season are at least comparable to Murphy's, if not better. But I guess Murphy considers himself a better player than his recent results suggest, and to be far, I think we all do. Even though all of his titles since the 2008 UK Championship have been short-format stuff, I still think this format is not to his advantage, as he usually needs a bit of time to play himself into matches. Who could trouble him here? Well, Liang Wenbo is potentially a tricky opponent in the last32. This has been by far his best season since that good run of form in 2009. He was a quarter-finalist in the International Championship, won an Asian PTC event, and played quite well in York and Berlin as well. Going back to 2009, he reached his only ranking final thus far in Shanghai that year, and beat Murphy 6-5 in the SF in a really exciting match. An alternative for Murphy here is Fergal O'Brien, the opponent he beat in that PTC final in Poland. The other big name here is Barry Hawkins, somewhat more successful than Murphy this season, but the last couple of tournaments saw him lose some close matches in a pretty frustrating fashion. His match against Cao Yupeng is one of the best prospects of this first televised round, a repeat of the last32 match in the Wuxi Classic, where Cao surprisingly prevailed 5-4. Cao has mostly struggled since that tournament, but played well in the 1st round here, compiling two centuries in his win over David Grace, so he could be dangerous again. Martin Gould against Jack Lisowski is another good prospect, two extremely attacking players well suited to the short format. Unfortunately their rather one-dimensional games have failed to consistently bring them to the business end of tournaments, so they are slight underdogs here as well, but they could certainly cause problems for anyone. Murphy against Hawkins would be a repeat of a great last16 match at the UK, Hawkins winning 6-5 on that occasion, but there are certainly a few obstacles along the way...
Quarter 4:
Judd Trump v. Jamie Burnett
Ryan Day v. Anthony McGill
Mark King v. Alan McManus
John Higgins v. Ken Doherty
Ricky Walden v. Matthew Selt
Anthony Hamilton v. Li Hang
Xiao Guodong v. Michael White
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Barry Pinches
The bottom quarter could be very interesting as well, but it's not quite as strong as the third one. Let's start with Judd Trump... A month ago he wasn't really involved in the season at all, in terms of challenging for titles or even just getting through the early rounds of tournaments, but now he is probably back to being the man to beat in this section. He thrashed all of his opponents before the final in the German Masters, then came up short against a very strong Ding Junhui. Maybe his form just needed these extra couple of weeks to really compete with the top players. He came through a high-quality match against Kyren Wilson in the 1st round here. His draw from here on is quite reasonable, but certainly not easy. Jamie Burnett has been playing surprisingly well recently, a last16 appearance in Germany, but he is usually better against the lower-ranked players rather than the top ones. Ryan Day is another in-form player, a semi-finalist in Berlin, improving on his QF at the International Championship earlier in the season. I guess he was due another patch of good form. He certainly has the scoring power to compete with Trump, but none of his best runs in the past have been in his home event, although he does have two quarter-final appearances. If he does play Trump, it will be the first time ever in a major event. Anthony McGill has also looked good at times this season, but never quite made it to the business end of a major tournament, except for India. He beat Allen in Germany though, so he might fancy another good scalp or two here. John Higgins? I bet he would love to meet Trump in another major match, but like most people, I have a bad feeling about Higgins. His form since Wuxi has been similar to Williams', a good match here and there, but he can't seem to put a few of them together. He was outplayed by Dale in Germany, no disgrace there, but an in-form Higgins would probably come through a match like that almost every time. Ken Doherty has been awful this season, but he is not a favourable opponent for Higgins. Although Higgins has a positive record over him over the course of their career, he has only beaten him once in a major match over the last decade. Mark King is always dangerous as well, although usually better against the top players rather than the players in his own league, so to speak. I guess Alan McManus going through wouldn't be a huge shock either. He had a good win over Trump in the International Championship, and he played pretty well recently in Berlin, beating Ebdon and Lisowski on his way to the last16.
It's tough to see past Ronnie O'Sullivan in the last section. He hasn't played a lot this season, but when he has played he's mostly looked good. Certainly good enough to put himself alongside Ding and Robertson as the big3 of the season so far. His Masters win was very convincing, but he said himself that he hasn't really picked up his cue since then, so he may need a couple of matches to build up his form again. Luckily his draw here is not too bad. His first real danger could be Xiao Guodong, the runner-up in the Shanghai Masters earlier in the season. I expected Xiao's form to drop after the series of Asian events in the first part of the season, but he played strongly in the UK as well, and took advantage of a good draw to reach another QF in Germany a couple of weeks ago. Of course O'Sullivan has a certain aura about him that a lot of players struggle with, so it's a test of bottle for Xiao as well. There is not much history to indicate whether he can cope with it or not, so we will just have to wait and see. If they meet at all of course, because Michael White is also here, a quarter-finalist in the WC last season, his only similar run this season coming in India, like with quite a few other players. I think he is making his debut at the venue stage of this tournament, so it will be interesting to see how he plays as a local player. If O'Sullivan is out of sorts, Ricky Walden is the favourite to take advantage. Walden's best tournament so far this season has been the UK Championship, where he beat Williams, Ding and Allen to reach the SF. Other than that, he hasn't really impressed. He was thrashed by O'Sullivan at the Masters, 6-0, at one point being on the wrong end of a new "points without reply" record. If they do meet here, it will be tough for him to overcome that psychological disadvantage, although it has to be said that Walden has historically done pretty well against O'Sullivan, even beating him in a ranking final in 2008. Anthony Hamilton also seems to be back to decent form this season, with a QF appearance to his name in Wuxi, and another decent run in Berlin recently. I don't expect Li Hang to do much, but you never know, he played well in the UK Championship, even holding his own against Neil Robertson at one point. But while O'Sullivan hasn't won this event for quite a long time now, it has remained a strong one for him, at least in terms of good runs, if not titles, so I expect him to be up for it.
Possible QF lineup:
Stephen Maguire v. Ding Junhui
Stuart Bingham v. Mark Allen
Neil Robertson v. Shaun Murphy
Judd Trump v. Ronnie O'Sullivan
That's what I think anyway... Could be a good week of snooker. :wink:
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