The World Grand Prix Mar 16-22, 2015

[DeanH]

The World Grand Prix Mar 16-22, 2015

looking forward to this event .... purely because I can watch it in the UK :biggrin:

[Odrl]

I'm quite happy Eurosport is covering this event, as it looks like a nice little addition to the calendar and will certainly get us back on track after the crap World Snooker served us in India last week. We really are entering the final part of the season now, only four events to go. Of the three events that precede the World Championship, the China Open perhaps carries the most prestige, but the top prize in the other two is marginally higher, money wise I mean, so I'm sure the players will be very motivated to do well this week.

Players have qualified by being in the top32 of the one-year rankings this season (plus last season's World Championship), so by definition most players here have been in good form recently, and that should probably ensure a pretty good standard of play.

The players are also seeded strictly according to that list, so all parts of the draw should be quite balanced. Let's see what it looks like...

Quarter 1:

Mark Selby v. Michael Holt
Martin Gould v. Alan McManus
Stephen Maguire v. Xiao Guodong
Shaun Murphy v. Peter Ebdon

Mark Selby is comfortably the top seed this week, thanks mostly to the points he got for winning the World Championship. He struggled in the first part of the season but seems to have got back on track now with that win in the German Masters. He is a tough player to beat in any event, but I think the shorter matches in the earlier rounds here make him a little more vulnerable, especially if his mind is already on his World title defence. He opens with a match against Michael Holt, who only just made it as the 32nd seed, and is one of the very few players who come here on the back of fairly poor recent results. Before the Welsh Open started I said some players could ruin their season in the space of a week, and that definitely applies to Holt, who lost in the 1st round in Wales and also failed to qualify for the Indian and the China Open. He hasn't reached a major quarter-final all season, a little surprising considering how well he played the season before, so he desperately needs a result here. He has a strong tactical game, so he could cause problems for Selby, but Selby did win when they met in Shanghai earlier this season, 5-3.

Martin Gould has been fairly reliable this season. He reached his first major semi-final in Wuxi in the summer, then qualified for the venue stage of every ranking event he's played in since, and won at least a match at every venue. He is 33 years of age now, so it's now or never really. Alan McManus got through the short matches in Wales pretty well and reached the last16 there, and he is the kind of player who could really take advantage of Gould's limited tactical game. He won 5-1 the only time they've played before, in the World Open last year. It will be tough for either of them to get past Selby here, but certainly not impossible.

Shaun Murphy and Stephen Maguire could potentially meet in a very interesting last16 match, which would make this quarter look a lot like the business end of the German Masters, where both of them fell victim to Selby in the end. It has been a terrific rivalry down the years, Murphy beating Maguire 6-4 in their most recent match in the Masters this season. Maguire has enjoyed a return to form in recent months, with two semi-finals and another quarter-final in the last three major ranking events he's played in, on top of a PTC title in Lisbon. He definitely doesn't get frustrated as easily as in the past, but it's hard to say whether that is the cause or the result of his good form. It's a tough opening match against Xiao Guodong here, the player who beat him in Shanghai last season, on the way to his first ranking final. This season's best for Xiao is a semi-final in Australia, which is not too bad, but his recent results have put him under pressure a little, as he failed to qualify for both the PTC Finals and the China Open, so this is his last event before the World Championship qualifiers.

Murphy has it just as tough in the opening round, against Peter Ebdon, who seems to have found a bit of consistency lately. We have seen quite a bit of him in the last few tournaments, but he's come up against the likes of Selby and Williams in good form, so he hasn't been able to reach the later rounds. He doesn't have the best record against Murphy, but they haven't played a major match in a few years now. The best-of-7s can catch anyone out, like they did Murphy in the Welsh Open, but it's a format Murphy generally does well in, having won two PTCs this season, with another semi-final in Gdynia just recently. He also has the Masters title and a ranking final already this year, which probably makes him the best player of 2015 so far. I would give him a slight edge over Maguire in this part of the draw, but it will be a tough job for whoever gets through.

Quarter 2:

Ricky Walden v. Ding Junhui
Mark Williams v. Ryan Day
Joe Perry v. Ben Woollaston
Judd Trump v. Dominic Dale

Ricky Walden against Ding Junhui is perhaps the most interesting match of the 1st round, made possible by Ding's very low seeding here. It's amazing that he is comfortably in the top4 in the world, but on this one-year list he has only just made it as the 28th seed. He held five titles before the season started, now he only holds one, and a single semi-final in Shanghai is all he has managed this season. He's also lost in the 1st round of the previous three events he's played in, so he clearly starts as second favourite here. Walden on the other hand has just reached the final in India, although I'm not sure that's particularly good for his chances here, as the recent travel is bound to take its toll. These two haven't met much, but they did play a good match in the UK Championship last season, Walden winning 6-4.

Walden also beat Mark Williams 6-5 in that tournament, but Williams is certainly playing better snooker now, and he has excelled in all three best-of-7 tournaments recently, with semi-finals in the Welsh and the Indian Open and the final in Gdynia. It's been a good year for him really, but he will probably be disappointed not to have won a title. Ryan Day reached the quarter-finals in Germany, where he was a little lucky to beat Ding in the 1st round, but he failed to push on in the following couple of tournaments. He beat Williams the last time they played, 5-2 in the Wuxi Classic, but Williams has certainly shown more form recently. This part of the draw is really tough to call, because all four players are very strong on their day, but they are all notoriously inconsistent, and they all have the disadvantage of having travelled to India and back recently. Could things turn around for Ding here?

Joe Perry is another player who has played well in the best-of-7 format this season, he has a PTC title and a quarter-final in India last week, on top of the ranking final he reached in Wuxi at the start of the season. He hasn't been as consistent as last season, but he is still fairly reliable in most events, so I would put him favourite against Ben Woollaston here. Woollaston is himself a ranking finalist this season, but he mainly played on the outside tables in Wales, and didn't really impress in the two matches that were televised. He failed to qualify for the PTC Finals or the China Open, so this is a big week for him.

Judd Trump must be one of the favourites this week. His ranking title and two major finals this season were all before the new year, but he hasn't played too badly in the second half of the season either. He lost to Jamie Burnett in the International Championship in October, but since then he has lost to very strong players in all major events, and even in the PTCs his "worst" defeat was against Selt, which is hardly a disgrace. I suspect he will challenge strongly for the remaining titles this season, and this is the type of event he likes. There are no real outsiders here, but Dominic Dale comes fairly close, mainly qualifying on the back of the points he got in the World Championship, as opposed to good performances this season. He beat Trump 5-2 in Shanghai, so he knows he could do it, but he did lose in all five of their meetings prior to that, which puts Trump in a strong position here.

Quarter 3:

Neil Robertson v. Luca Brecel
Marco Fu v. Mark Davis
Barry Hawkins v. Matthew Selt
Stuart Bingham v. Anthony McGill

I don't know what to make of Neil Robertson's year so far. On one hand he has had patches of brilliance where he probably played better than any other player this season, but on the other hand he hasn't won a major title since the summer, and that must be fairly frustrating for him. He just always seems to find the wrong time to play a poor match recently. He did win the PTC in Gdynia though, so his form is clearly not a problem. I expect him to be tough to beat in the long matches of the World Championship, but in the early rounds this week he could be more vulnerable. He has never played Luca Brecel before, so it will be interesting to see. Brecel should be pretty high on confidence after his breakthrough in the Welsh Open and the good performance in Gdynia, and his recent win over Selby has established his as a dangerman now. He won't be travelling to China, having lost to O'Sullivan in the qualifiers, so he needs to make the most of this event.

If Brecel is still fairly unpredictable at this point, I suspect Marco Fu will be a predictably high obstacle for Robertson again, having beaten him in their last couple of major meetings, including the Australian Open final last season. He has already reached six major quarter-finals this season, which is more than the vast majority of players, but the problem is he lost them all, so he hasn't really challenged for a title yet. He withdrew from India last week, which could prove to be a blessing in disguise for him, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him produce a strong performance here. Mark Davis did travel to India and reached the quarter-finals there, but other than that the second part of the season has been fairly quiet for him, which is not unusual really, as he seems to play most of his best snooker in the early season. He has played Robertson in a ranking semi-final this season, in Australia, and lost 6-2, but he has beaten him in the past, so he is another candidate to go through here.

Barry Hawkins is the 11th seed this week, so he has qualified fairly comfortably, but if you take away his WC semi-final he barely makes it, that's how mediocre his season has been. He reached the semi-finals of the Wuxi Classic right at the start, but since then he hasn't been in any major quarter-final all season. He has beaten Matthew Selt in all three of their major ranking matches in recent years, but Selt did win their semi-final in Lisbon, and I think the short format definitely favours Selt, so this is one match where I wouldn't be surprised to see the outsider go through. Selt has done consistently well all season, starting to play some very respectable snooker, at the age of 30 now.

I always put Hawkins and Stuart Bingham in the same group of players, as they've had a pretty similar rise up the rankings in the last couple of years, and they've both played as strongly as you would expect from top8 players at times, but Hawkins has definitely struggled to reach that standard this season, while Bingham is still going strongly. He hasn't really featured at the business end of any major event after the new year yet, but more often than not it's taken a good player and a good performance to take him out. It's amazing how long it's been since Bingham and Hawkins last met outside of the short format stuff, 11 years! Bingham first has to do the business against Anthony McGill though. McGill's run to the quarter-finals of the UK Championship is a fairly isolated good result for him at this point, but we are seeing more and more of him, and his game doesn't really have a major weakness, so he could be dangerous if he finds form again.

Quarter 4:

Mark Allen v. Liang Wenbo
John Higgins v. Graeme Dott
Robert Milkins v. Michael White
Ronnie O'Sullivan v. Rod Lawler

Mark Allen doesn't seem like a good bet at the moment. He has been struggling in the last two months or so, at least compared to his performances earlier in the season when he reached back to back ranking finals. He even failed to qualify for the China Open, so he could do with a good run here or in the PTC Finals, to avoid going into the World Championship devoid of confidence. Liang Wenbo is always unpredictable, but not really a player Allen wanted to draw, I suspect. A semi-finalist in the German Masters this season, his best result in more than five years, and he did qualify for the China Open, very convincingly in fact, but on the other hand failed to qualify for the PTC Finals. Both players have a lot of firepower on their day and it's only a short match, so no scoreline would surprise me majorly.

John Higgins comes here as a recent winner for the first time in quite a while. He got a taste of wining again in Wales, which could make him very dangerous for the rest of the season. I was surprised at how comfortably he won the Welsh Open, only being pushed close by Brecel in the semi-finals, but I suppose the draw did open up nicely for him. I think he plays better in the shorter matches these days, kind of like Williams, so this format could suit him. We haven't seen much of Graeme Dott recently, not since the UK Championship anyway, but of course he can't be ruled out here, having already reached two major quarter-finals this season. He hasn't played Higgins in a while, so it will be interesting to see how it goes. I have a strong suspicion who Higgins would prefer as his 2nd round opponent though. He has never lost to Liang and just recently beat him 4-0 in Wales, while his last three matches against Allen didn't go well at all. In fact, Allen played miraculously well at times, beating him in the World Open in 2013 and 2014, and also in the Masters this season in a high-quality match. Even Higgins has a few bogey players, as his recent struggles against Mark Davis and Alan McManus prove, and he often finds it hard to overturn those records.

Robert Milkins is another player who seems to play his best snooker in the summer months, while his results after the new year are often less impressive. This season has followed that pattern, but he did reach the quarter-finals in Gdynia and India, so it's not all bad. He probably finds himself as second favourite here though, against the in-form Michael White. Most people probably know by now that I don't consider the Indian Open a proper ranking event, so when mentioning White's success I will always accompany it with a comment about the inferior format of that event, even if it gets on some people's nerves. It doesn't make much difference though, there is no doubt that White is extremely confident at the moment, and certainly a danger in all remaining events this season.

Ronnie O'Sullivan is the 2nd seed this week, but I'm not really sure what to expect from him. He has won both editions of the Champion of Champions, and this event is similar in a lot of ways, so it could bring out the best in O'Sullivan. His form hasn't been very convincing since the new year though. He played particularly poorly in the Welsh Open and was lucky to even win a couple of matches, before pretty much throwing away the match against Stevens. White has never played him in a major event, but he might get the opportunity to show us if he has what it takes here. Rod Lawler is the type of player O'Sullivan doesn't like playing, so I wouldn't completely rule him out either, although he hasn't done much recently, apart from a good run in the UK Championship before the new year. I definitely don't think Milkins can beat O'Sullivan though, having lost 30 of the 34 frames he's played against him in various matches, which include thrashings in the UK Championship and the Masters last season.

Possible quarter-final line-up:

Mark Selby v. Shaun Murphy
Ding Junhui v. Judd Trump
Neil Robertson v. Stuart Bingham
Mark Allen v. Ronnie O'Sullivan


As always in the best-of-7 format, I'm sure there will be a few surprises. I hope I get the time to watch as much of this as possible, and I'm particularly looking forward to the weekend, when the matches get longer. :smile:

[em@rel]

looking forward to this event .... purely because I can watch it in the UK :biggrin:

As far as I can see it's not on Eurosport - is it on the BBC red button ?

[DeanH]

ITV4 are covering this event (and WSTV)
http://www.worldsnooker.com/page/New...556551,00.html

[em@rel]

Cheers Dean

[daffie]

Eurosport Europe is airing every session from today onwards, so it seems. Nice! :snooker:

[Hal]

Wow, really?? I thought I will have to watch it on the stupid streams. Great news! Looking forward for this event, shame it is still only best of 7 till semis though .... My tip is Bingham for the title

[scottley]

Did i just hear Michael be introduced as Michael Hall? And i'm sure Higgins thinks McManus is playing Holt too lol.

[adrian au]

does anyone know where i can watch table 2 live?

[daffie]

Don't think they show play on T2...only T1, and if play on T1 ends then they'll probably (hopefully) switch to T2...if I have understood DeanH's explanation earlier correctly

[daffie]

Btw what's with all the neon lights in the arena...looks like a Russian sauna in there (not that I've ever been in one though)

[shmeeko69]

Did i just hear Michael be introduced as Michael Hall? And i'm sure Higgins thinks McManus is playing Holt too lol.

Higgins certainly did say that in the commentary box and I don't know if Jill Douglas was aware of it and just said nothing?

[shmeeko69]

Btw what's with all the neon lights in the arena...looks like a Russian sauna in there (not that I've ever been in one though)

It's certainly going down the PDC darts route. Know doubt Mr Hearns has something to do with it and next we'll have the showgirls bringing in the players!

[LittleMissAlexa]

Maguires Second Century (122) was number 300 of his career tenth fastest to get there out of 15 with over 300 centuries Ding and Trump (10 Seasons) Hendry and R O'Sullivan (11) J Higgins (13) N Robertson and Selby (16) Fu and Shaun Murphy (17) Maguire (18) Ebdon (21) MJ Williams (22) Doherty (23) S Davis (27) J White (30)

[robertmac]

Excellent analysis as usal Odrl and thank you for it.

In Group 1 I wouldnt count out Murphy or Maguire
as both are capable of playing very well.
In Group 2 both Trump and Williams could do well.
In Group 3 Robertson and Bingham can be tough
to beat.
Group 4 might be O'Sullivan or White.

As the tournament progresses we will see who is
up against who and it should be interesting.